Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 12th Oct)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Stronger E’ly swell on the radar from Wed-Fri from large E’ly fetch in South Pacific- expect long waits for sets
• NE winds developing from Tues-Thurs with NE windswell later Thurs, peaking Fri
• Offshore winds to develop Fri as trough/front pushes through
• Great surf this weekend with slow easing E swell and light winds
• Small surf expected for early next week with light winds
• Tracking potential sizey NE swell later next week as inland low approaches coast, possibly with severe weather

Recap

Onshore winds made a mess of the surf yesterday with only a brief period of lighter winds in the morning. Surf built into the 3-4ft range- mostly E/NE swell from the South Pacific. Today is seeing lighter winds through the morning before NE breezes kick up but surf is coming in a bit under-sized. There’s an inconsistent 3ft of swell from the Eastern Quadrant with some OK waves for the patient. An increase in slightly longer period E/NE swell is expected for the a’noon.

A bit scrappy and under-sized but still some E'ly energy to play with

This week (Oct 12-14)

E-E/NE swell keeps chugging along this week. Despite some slow periods between pulses the ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes shows a long, broad fetch of strong winds with gales embedded around a tropical depression. That leads to high confidence in continuing pulsey swell from that South Pacific source fetch. Closer to home a strong high between Tasmania and the South Island is now being squeezed by an approaching trough series, front and cut-off low, which will see increasing NE winds before an offshore change Friday. Light winds are expected for the weekend in the wake of the change.

In the short run and NE winds really kick in tomorrow as the inland trough/front approach from the West. Early N’lies will quickly tend NE and exceed 20 knots so you’ll need to find some wind protection. Stronger E swell is expected to supply surf in the 3-4ft range with the odd 5 footer- wave models seem to be slightly over-cooking the size and failing to account for swell decay. Through the a’noon we’ll see some 2-3ft NE windswell blend into the mix.

NE windswell holds to 2-3ft Fri morning on an easing trend with continuing mid/long period E/NE swell showing inconsistent 4ft sets with the odd bigger one. The good news is winds will quickly shift NW through Fri morning then tilt W through W/SW for the a’noon. There is a possibility of a small, troughy area around the Hunter which may throw in a period of onshore SE winds through the a’noon, so keep tabs on local winds. Otherwise, Friday is looking great once the wind swings.

This weekend (Oct 15-16)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. The change fizzes out, leaving a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea. There should be a light W to WSW flow Sat morning with light a’noon sea breezes.

Sunday sees a light morning land breeze with an a’noon Nor-easter that should stay in the moderate range.

Surf-wise we’ll see a slow winding down of E swell over the weekend. Saturday should still see plenty of size through the morning with sets to 4ft, although they will become increasingly inconsistent and slowly wind down in size through the day. An uncrowded bank will be worth it’s weight in gold.

By Sunday we’ll be expecting longer waits for the 3 footers which will tend more to 2ft with the very odd 3footer as the day goes on. There should be enough energy for a fun surf, especially if you can get away from the crowd. 

Next week (Oct 17 onwards)

As mentioned on Mon, the Tasman Sea develops a “soupy”, troughy pattern for early next week with light winds expected for Mon and Tues at a minimum. Expect just a small, lingering E swell signal in the 2ft range Mon, easing back further into Tues. A following tropical low forming near Fiji we discussed on Mon now races south and behind the North Island before it can generate any useful swell but we'll continue to monitor for any signs of stalling.

A compact but intense front/low races across the Lower Tasman Sun/Mon (see below) and this may provide a few traces of longer period S swell from late Mon into Tues, but nothing more than 2ft at the most reliable S swell magnets.

From Mid next week we see another dynamic weather system unfold, as (yet another!) inland low approaches from the West. This system looks to be sandwiched by twin high pressure systems in the Bight and Tasman Sea, with potential for a  strong E to NE fetch to develop proximate to the NSW Central Coast. Models are still divergent over outcomes with some runs placing the locus of the winds further north. 

It’s likely to come with severe weather so stay tuned for updates but pencil in increasing E to NE swell and potentially strong onshore winds later next week. 

Check back Fri for updates.