Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 28th Oct)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Tiny on Sat with a sight bump on S swell, small S swell Sun mostly offshore winds both days- tiny/flat away from S swell magnets
• Another round of NE windswell likely Mon/Tues next week
• Strong W’ly pattern kicks in Tues, extends through most of next week
• Small S swell pulses expected from Wed PM into next weekend, tiny/flat away from S facing beaches- check back Mon for updates

Recap

It’s been an impressive tail end to this E swell episode with size at the upper end or over f/cast expectations, and with offshore winds has supplied some glorious surf, especially notable for being in Spring. Yesterday saw size in the 3-4ft range with premium offshore conditions. Today has eased in size but there are still some 2-3ft waves to be had, with more premium offshore surface conditions to be enjoyed. Size is definitely easing though with this swell source just about dried up. What a lovely run of surf and great conditions this week has been.

Easing swells but still a sublime dawn patrol

This weekend (Oct 29-30)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Our Autumnal run of surf and condition is now going to be replaced by a more late winter-style pattern, dominated by W’ly winds. A complex low pressure gyre is located over Tasmania with a trough having moved offshore from the NSW coast and a cold front pushing through Bass Strait today.

That will drive a mostly W’ly flow across the f/cast region through Sat. There is trough line which hovers about the coast through the day which may bring some flukey winds, likely S-SE in direction but the basic W’ly synoptic flow should be able to over-ride this through the a’noon. Not much swell to speak of- just a few small small traces of E swell and some refracted S swell in the 2ft range at the better known S swell magnets. 

We should see a slight bump in S swell through Sun as the trailing fetch off Tasmania delivers a small payload. This will amount to some 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches, more common in the a’noon. An offshore flow will tend variable before E-NE winds kick in through the a’noon as a small high cell moves offshore from Central NSW. 

Next week (Oct 31 onwards)

A quick spike in NE windswell is expected Mon as another mid-latitude low approaches from the Bight and tightens the pressure gradient with the high in the Tasman. Expect freshening N to NE winds and surf quickly building into the 2-3ft range. It’s a very fast moving fetch and there’s still a reasonable  chance we may see wind shift NW and even W as the mid-latitude low pushes another W’ly flow across NSW.

Tuesday is a better bet for that, with NE windswell quickly disappearing as the fetch gets shunted Eastwards, away from the swell window. 

Unfortunately the mid-latitude low which dips down below Tasmania during Mon/Tues either stalls behind Tasmania (see below) or quickly dissipates in strength as it enters the Tasman Sea and our swell window proper. 

The movement of the low into the Tasman and accompanying fronts will drive fresh W/NW to NW winds across the state Tues, and quickly flatten NE windswell. We may see some small S swell arrive in the a’noon from Bass Strait gales but it’s likely to be in the 2ft range at only the most reliable S swell magnets.

W’ly winds then dominate through Wed and into the end of next week. While the orientation of the fetches is far from ideal for swell production we’ll still see some small S swell through the second half of next week. 

We’ll need to dial in specifics early next week but pencil in some small surf from the S possibly as early as late Wed, with some small pulses Thurs/Fri. Expect tiny/flat surf away from S facing beaches.

Into next weekend and another frontal progression passing through the lower Tasman suggests more S swell next weekend although no great size is suggested a this stage.

There does seem to be more activity bubbling up in the South Pacific and Northern Coral Sea later next week so we’ll keep tabs on that over the weekend. Other than that, more troughiness is expected to redevelop the NSW Coast and Tasman suggesting our current unstable pattern will extend well into November.

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!