Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 17th Oct)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small E swell slowly fades out early next week with light SE winds Mon, tending NE on Tues
• Small S swell pulses this week Tues/Wed, slightly stronger Fri
• NE windswell now building late Thurs, becoming chunky Fri and extending through the weekend and into early next week
• Winds NE from Thurs, likely tending offshore next Tues as low moves out to sea
• Possible SSE/SE swell next week as low moves into Tasman

Recap

After Fridays great surf we saw a slow decline over the weekend with Sat seeing inconsistent 3-4ft surf with light winds and sea breezes. The slow decline continued into Sunday with clean 2-3ft surf through the morning, ruffled by onshore winds in the a’noon. A trough has brought unsettled weather and onshore S to SE winds today which has left scrappy 2-3ft surf across the region. A few, tricky, troughy wind changes are expected this week before our expected N’ly pattern kicks in to end the week. Details below. 

Still a few small, clean lines Sun morning

This week (Oct 17-21)

As mentioned last week we have a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman with a broad area of high pressure now moving over the area and yet another complex low pressure system moving East across inland Australia. A series of fronts are rapidly transiting across the Lower Tasman with some small S swell pulses en route. The end of the week will see another round of chunky NE windswell develop, likely persisting over the weekend and into next week.

In the short run and a light onshore pattern through tomorrow will maintain mostly scrappy surface conditions although they should be a notch improved on today at least. Residual E swell generated by a fast moving low which briefly re-energised the E’ly fetch north of the North Island should supply inconsistent mid period sets to 2-3ft through tomorrow with winds tending more NE through the a’noon.

Some long period S swell trains should supply some flukey 2ft sets at known S swell magnets. 

Wed will really see the last dregs of the E swell, with 2ft sets easing right back through the day. Another trough is expected to brush the region on Wed, with early light NW winds shifting SW through SE as the trough moves through from mid morning. Nothing amazing Wed but there should be a few small beachies on offer before SE winds kick in.

Small surf continues into Thurs, mostly flukey S swell trains from then passing fronts with sets to 2ft at S facing beaches. Early light winds should be offshore before light N to NE breezes kick in, stronger on the Hunter.

By the close of the working week we’ll start to see a stronger NE pattern develop as the inland low approaches and a stronger high moves into the Tasman. That will see fresh N to NE winds develop across the region and a building trend in NE windswell as a proximate fetch to the NSW Coast extends and strengthens. Expect size to push up into the 3-4ft range through the a’noon, with another pulse of long period S swell producing some larger 3ft sets at S facing beaches. 

This weekend (Oct 22-23)

Winds look straight forwards this weekend. Northerlies both days as the synoptic pattern becomes slow moving. The inland low and the high in the Tasman both in no hurry to moves.

The fetch off the coast does look to weaken and contract a little Sat which should see a morning peak in size before an easing trend - likely in the 3-4ft range with some bigger sets, easing off a notch through the day. Early winds may tend NW before getting up from the NNE-NE.

More of the same Sun with the fetch looking to re-strengthen a notch and thus seeing surf solidify back into the 4ft range. 

We’ll finesse size and timing through the week but pencil in plenty of NE windswell and winds from the same direction. 

Next week (Oct 24 onwards)

The Northerly pattern looks to extend into Mon next week with size expected to hold in the 3-4ft range as the NE fetch remains in place and the inland low tracks towards Victoria. A healthy trade-wind flow extending from New Caledonia back into the Coral Sea and South Pacific will add some energy to the NE windswell.

By Tues next week the inland low is expected to reach the coast, possibly around the Gippsland area, bringing an offshore flow to the  f/cast region. That should see leftover NE windswell and E/NE trade-wind swell in the 3ft range cleaned up by offshores.

Tradewind swell should hold into mid next week before declining as the fetch retracts to the E. We’ll be looking at the low as it sits off the Gippsland Coast or SE of Tas for potential SSE swell late next week. Models are offering divergent outcomes but it does have some surf potential. 

Check back Wed and we’ll see how that is shaping up.