Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 15)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Grovelly SE swell Sat with onshore winds tending NE and freshening
• Sizey NE windswell building Sun PM, extending into Mon AM
• Fresh NE winds Sun, offshore winds Mon AM before a S’ly change
• Small S swell likely Tues, slightly better quality S swell Wed under light winds
• Better S swell Fri with light NW winds tending N-NE

Recap

Small blend of S and SE swells to 2ft yesterday, a notch bigger 2-3ft on the Hunter but surface conditions were very ordinary under an onshore S-SE flow that freshened in the a’noon. A few semi-clean options around this morning with light winds, although tending S-SE then E through the day. Size is around 2ft on open beaches and offering a rideable wave at the grovel end of the spectrum.

Fun grovel on offer this morning

This weekend (Nov 16-17)

No great change to the weekend outlook. High pressure moving into the Tasman today strengthens over the weekend with a ridge along the NSW coast tending to NE breezes on Sat. Not much swell energy to work with on Sat - just a small blend of S swell and short period SE-E windswell from the high. That should hold a 2ft wave on the open beaches but expect that N’ly to be up very early, before tending NE at mod/fresh paces by the a’noon. 

We’ll see that N-NE flow really ramp up on Sun as an approaching front and cut-off low really tightens the pressure gradient. Expect mod/fresh NE winds to reach low end gales through the a’noon (35 gusting 40kts) before backing off very late in the day. NE windswell should see a steady build from 2-3ft up to 4-5ft, with bigger surf on the South Coast. 

Next week (Nov18 onwards)

Monday morning offers a window of clean conditions with NW-W tending W/SW winds before a trough brings a S’ly change. Size will have come off the peak on Sun but some clean 3-4ft surf looks to be on offer. There should be a window up to 8-9am at least before the change pushes in. Size ramps down quickly after lunch.

We’ll see a small flush of S swell Tues from a front under the trough with light winds early tending S-SE then clocking around E-E/NE in the a’noon. No great size Tues, with S exposed breaks up into the 2 occ. 3ft range and mostly wind affected.

Wed should see a slight better S swell signal from a decaying fetch passing through the lower Tasman related to Mondays change (see below). Expect some longer period S swell to build through the mid/late morning up into the 3 occ. 4ft range at S facing beaches. Conditions should be workable at S facing beaches under a light E-E/NE flow, tending to light NE seabreezes. 

Unfortunately, compared to Wednesdays notes, we’re not looking at any major low pressure development in the Tasman next week from the trough. We will see light winds through Tues-Fri with Wed’s S swell easing quickly into Thurs and only small leftovers (2ft or so) on offer.

We did mention a S groundswell on Wed and this now looks to be a little more substantial in the absence of a Tasman low. A beefy fetch tracking through the lower Tasman Tues/Wed should see a swell front push through in the early hours of Fri with sets to 3-4ft (bigger on the Hunter and select S swell magnets) under a light NW flow tending light N-NE through the day. Looks good for S facing beaches on Fri.

Further ahead and size eases into next weekend with high pressure in the Tasman and a troughy pattern remaining across the continent. Nothing solid on the radar so we’ll expect a weak, underpowered surf next weekend. There’s some model guidance about potential low pressure or an E’ly dip in the Coral Sea later next week which offers some hope for wave starved QLD surfers. We’ll see how that looks on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!