Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 14th Oct)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Offshore winds to develop Fri as trough/front pushes through, cleaning up E'ly groundswell and NE windswell
• Fun surf this weekend with slow easing E swell and generally light winds both mornings, tending S/SE Sat and NE Sun
• Small E swell slowly fades out early next week with light SE winds Mon, tending NE on Tues
• Extended NE winds and NE windswell event expected from Wed to Fri next week, possibly extending into next weekend, stay tuned for details

Recap

Strong but inconsistent  E/NE was in the water with sets topping out around 4ft, messy at most places with a fresh NE flow that whipped up a small amount of NE windswell. Today has already seen cleaner conditions on the Hunter under a lighter N-NW flow, and those clean conditions will spread through the region as a front brings an offshore W’ly change through the middle part of the day. Excellent surfing conditions extend into the close of play and through Sat morning. 

Offshore winds in the process of cleaning up chunky blend of E/NE and NE swells

This weekend (Oct 15-16)

No great changes expected for the weekend f/cast. SW winds in the wake of todays front and complex low fizzling out south of Tasmania extend into Sat morning before a weak ridge brings a S/SE flow which quickly breaks down through the a’noon leaving a variable flow across the region. Areas south of the Illawarra should have lighter winds all day in a weaker synoptic regime.

Surf-wise we’ll be on the gradual downslope of our extended E/NE swell event. Still expecting some chunky 3-5ft surf through the morning session albeit with longer waits for sets, grading smaller 4ft through the a’noon. Don’t be surprised if the tide swallows up some of that energy.

A light and variable flow, tending to light a’noon sea breezes should allow for all day surfing Sunday. Be patient as 3-4ft sets become more widely spaced in time and slowly taper off through the day, likely tending more 2-3ft during the a’noon. All in all there should the plenty of fun waves, albeit inconsistent over the weekend. 

Next week (Oct 17 onwards)

Weak high pressure moves off the NSW Coast early next week with a troughy pattern expected. A brief trough induced S-SE flow Mon should remain fairly light and tail off quickly back to a light/variable flow in the a’noon.  Our incredibly persistent E swell is expected to still keep chugging away at low levels, throwing up inconsistent 2-3ft surf.

On current modelling we’re looking at another inland trough/low to approach the East Coast from interior NSW next week, tightening the pressure gradient with a high pressure system in the Tasman. 

That will see an extended period of N to NE winds and a fetch proximate to the Eastern Seaboard producing another round of NE windswell, likely with some sizey periods.

That pattern now looks to set up on Tues as NE winds begin to freshen across the region, with NE windswell starting to show through the a’noon. Residual E swell should hold some 2-3ft surf. Another low forms in the South Pacific over the weekend and dips quickly below the North Island but the initial E’ly fetch is expected to keep the E swell hanging in at low levels. 

From Wed to the end of the week a fresh N to NE flow is expected across the region as the inland low becomes slow moving (see below). There will be some fluctuations in the fetch which we will dial in on Mon but the basic pattern (which seems embedded this Spring) will see building levels of NE windswell Wed, likely into the 3ft range.

Usually these NE fetches are transitory but this one looks to stay put as the inland trough system stalls out, so we’ll be expecting NE windswell and NE winds to remain until the end of next week and possibly even extending into next weekend.

Surf is likely to fluctuate in the 3-5ft range through this period, as a ball park figure.

We’ll finesse sizes and timing as we get closer to the event.

Check back Monday for the latest update and have a great weekend!