Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 26th Oct)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Winds tending offshore Tues, stay tuned for updates
• Easing swells with mostly offshore winds Wed-Fri
• Tiny on Sat with a sight bump on S swell, small S swell Sun- tiny/flat away from S swell magnets
• Another round of NE windswell likely Mon/Tues next week
• Still tracking potential S swells from Wed next week, check back Fri for updates

Recap

Plenty of swell in the water through yesterday and t today as a sub-tropical low drifted down the NSW Coast from it’s Coral Sea origins. Size yesterday was in the 5-6ft range with reports of bigger 8ft sets, mostly south of Sydney. Quality was a bit mixed as offshore winds were flukey across the region. Generally at some point during the day offshore winds established through the region. Today has seen smaller surf in the 3-4ft range with an offshore W/NW to NW flow providing really good conditions. Winds are on the way to tending N’ly through the a’noon. 

Autumnal conditions with offshores and clean swell from the E/NE

This week (Oct 26-28)

Our Coral Sea low is now sitting just NE of Tasmania where it has merged with an exiting interior low to form a large, slow moving low-pressure gyre. Troughs are still snaking across Australia with a long trough line extending from the low pressure gyre through inland NSW up towards QLD and then into the Northern Territory, expected to move offshore through today. More inland troughs approach the coast during the rest of this week, driving an unstable but basically W’ly biased wind flow across the f/cast region through the end of the week and across the weekend. 

No great changes to the f/cast this week. The peak of the swell came in pretty hot and today has left plenty of energy in the tail but we’ll be well and truly on the downslope through the rest of the week. 

Conditions should be clean through tomorrow with a mostly W’ly wind, that will have periods of NW/N running through it, before tending W’ly again through the a’noon. Clean 2footers with the odd 3ft set will be on the menu with size and consistency both dipping down through the day.

By Friday conditions will be glorious under an all day W’ly flow as the trough moves offshore and the low pressure gyre starts to move E, driving a W’ly flow across the state. Not much surf on offer, just clean 2footers early, dropping right back to the 1-2ft babyfood range through the day. 

This weekend (Oct 29-30)

Westerly winds will make Sat feel more like August but will provide groomed conditions all day. Still not much swell expected. Gales do exit Bass Strait overnight and into Sat morning with a weaker fetch of SW winds south of Tasmania. That should see small amounts of refracted S swell show through the a’noon, more likely on the Hunter coast where these swells do tend to over-achieve. Keep expectations low, it’s likely to be in the 2ft range, possibly some 2-3ft sets at the most reliable S swell magnets. Tiny to flat elsewhere.

Not much more on Sun, with a few 2ft sets, bigger 2-3ft at Hunter swell magnets, on offer. Tiny to flat away from S exposed breaks. Clean conditions early under W’ly winds will tend to light onshore breezes as a high moves into the Tasman  with a weak, troughy flow expected along the coast. 

There should be a few small options on the weekend if you’ve got the right board and can find a S swell magnet accepting what meagre swell there is in the water. 

Next week (Oct 31 onwards)

High pressure in the Tasman next week quickly establishes a N’ly flow as the next mid-latitude low complex approaches and squeezes the pressure gradient. This fetch is expected to be very transitory compared to recent ones so it’s swell generating potential is more limited.

Mon should see a N’ly flow establish with some small S swell on offer initially - not much more than 1-2ft at S facing beaches with some small NE windswell being generated in the a’noon. Again, not more than 2ft. It’s possible winds will shift NW and even W/NW later in the day as a trough and front associated with the cut-off low complex pushes across the f/cast region. 

Which should see a return to a W’ly flow through Tues with a small blend of S and NE windswell on offer both less than 2ft.

By Wed part of the cut-off low complex will be in the Tasman, with a more northern part driving through Victoria, maintaining a W’ly flow. A more northerly located NE fetch in the Tasman should see a perk up in NE windswell and gales S of Tasmania are expected to send some S’ly swell arriving in the a’noon to 3ft.

This series of fronts and lows passing into the Tasman now looks a bit weaker than it did on Mon, with the fetches all weakening as they enter our Southern swell window but there’s still a chance we may see a stronger series of S swell pulses from Wed next week. 

As it stands we should see offshore winds continue through to the end of next week as troughs and fronts connected to the mid latitude low continue to drive a W’ly flow across the region in what would be considered a classic August pattern.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up and take a last look at the weekend f/cast.