To clarify further, I’m not revising my size estimates as such, it’s just that the fetch around the low - which should be pushing 50kts as we speak - is aimed away from the NSW coast so we’re looking at sideband energy glancing the coast later today and into Tuesday.

The low is slow moving as it slides to the SE of New Caledonia and looks to be reinforced by a second tropical low budding off the monsoon trough in North QLD waters. We’ll see continuing E’ly swells from this source, with a long lasting peak as the system intensifies as it drifts through the South Pacific slot over the weekend.

New high pressure moves SE of Tasmania to start next week and compared to Wed’s notes it’s looking stronger and slower moving, which is good news for surf potential, especially medium term as it anchors low pressure drifting down from the tropics into the wide open South Pacific slot.

High pressure support for the tropical systems which is currently anchoring a tradewind fetch in the Coral Sea weakens substantially over the short term, with E swell potential thus weakening. We’ll still see some fun E’ly trade swell in the sub-tropics, trickling down into temperate regions.