Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 31st Oct)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

•  NE windswell peaksTues with winds tending offshore through the day
• Slight kick in S swell Wed PM at S facing beaches with fresh W’ly winds, extends into Thurs AM
• Stronger pulse of S swell Thurs PM, extends through Fri with W’ly winds easing
• Fun S swell Sat with light winds, surf becoming small Sun
• Couple of small days early next week before E swell starts to slowly build from Wed
• Potential for juicy E swell later next week and into the weekend as low drifts down from Coral Sea, to be near the North Island- check back Wed for updates

Recap

A few small fun waves were on offer over the weekend at S facing beaches in the region, with the Central Coast to Hunter stretch seeing the lions share of it, as per usual. Saturday saw a nice pulse of initial S swell to 2-3ft through the a’noon with NW to W’ly winds which veered more SW-S in the a’noon. Sunday continued that theme with surf to 3ft across the Hunter and Central Coast, smaller from Sydney southwards and tiny/flat away from S facing beaches. Light W’ly winds tended E/NE through the a’noon. Today is seeing a few scraps of leftover S swell with some 2ft sets at S facing beaches and a building trend in NE windswell under freshening NE winds. We’ll be looking to the S this week as fronts transit the through the lower Tasman. Read on for details. 

Fun lines on the Hunter this weekend

This week (Oct31-Nov 4)

All the action is in the Southern states right now, with a deep dual-centred low pressure gyre backed up by a strong high moving in from the Indian Ocean generating a powerful fetch which is just behind Tasmania with respect to our swell window. A front linked to this winter-style configuration links up with troughs extending through Northern Australia and the movement of that large scale system will drive W’ly winds across the region for the majority of the week. While we won’t get the full payload of S’ly swell from this system as the system gets shunted SW as it enters the swell window (NE would be ideal!) we’re still on track for a few usable S swell pulses this week, with a trailing frontal system providing bigger S swell into and over the weekend.

In the short run and  the rapid pre-frontal escalation of N’ly winds proximate to the coast today and overnight  should some workable NE windswell through tomorrow in the 3ft range. Winds quickly shift NW, then W’ly as the trough and front push through, opening up a good window for rapidly improving conditions. 

By Wed, the front will be pushing through at full strength with W’ly winds strong and possibly low end gale force at times, especially on the Illawarra. A small amount of NE windswell is likely left-over Wed morning depending on how much of the fetch through the Northern Tasman gets displaced and how quickly. It looks flukey so keep expectations low, strong W’lies are likely to iron out surf to tiny/flat during the day. By the mid-a’noon we’ll see a few small lines of S swell being generated by close-range fetches and out of Bass Strait, both sources favouring the Central Coast to Hunter stretch with some 2-3ft sets. 

Winds should slacken quite quickly Thurs as the front passes into the Tasman, with a lighter WSW to SW flow becoming established by mid-morning before a trough brings a light S-SSE flow through the a’noon. Close range swell will hold some 3ft sets at S swell magnets before backing off through the day. Later in the a’noon look out for longer period S swell which was generated by the powerful parent low as it got shunted SW on Tues. This will see some sets to 3ft favouring a much wider spread of S exposed breaks across the region. 

Friday is looking pretty juicy with multiple S swell trains in the water from the procession of fronts pushing through Bass Strait and S of Tasmania into the Tasman Sea. With the mix of swell periods you may have to look around to find somewhere hoovering up the juice and making sense of it. Early light winds are likely to tend to land breezes before a weak high pressure ridge starts to build in with weak SE-NE winds becoming established. Size in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches should max out in the 3-5ft range during the a’noon. Quality might be a bit mixed but there’ll be plenty of juice to work with on Fri.

This weekend (Nov5-6)

A final stage of the frontal progression pushes into the Tasman Thurs/Fri and this will top up S swell nicely over Sat with sets to 3-4ft, likely easing a notch through the a’noon. With high pressure moving just off the NSW Central/South Coast we should see light winds. Morning land breezes and light/mod E-NE sea breezes in the a’noon are on the menu at this stage.

Light winds continue through Sun, with small levels of leftover S swell, topping out with a few 2ft sets at S swell magnets on the Hunter and smaller elsewhere. There should be just enough energy leftover for a grovel at your nearest S facing beach. 

Next week (Nov7 onwards)

After our interlude from the South, eyes will be back on the Eastern swell window next week. A strong high moves in south of Tasmania early next week, anchoring a more E’ly flow through the Tasman and up into the Coral Sea. We mentioned troughs and low pressure development in the Coral Sea in last weeks notes and odds are firming we’ll get a surf producer out out of this pattern.

Models are still a bit divergent but a large trough of low pressure through the Coral Sea looks to move south next week and tighten the pressure gradient with the large high moving into the lower Tasman. This may form a closed, surface low later next week but in the early stages the development of SE-E winds through the Northern Tasman and Southern Coral Sea is expected to see a slow build in fun E swell early next week.

We’re looking at a couple of small days Mon and Tues with minor levels of E swell below 2ft.

By Wed that size should start to ratchet up into the 3ft range, under a general E’ly flow. 

If a closed low does meander near the North Island as modelled (see below) we’ll be looking at another round of juicy E swell late next week and into the weekend 12-13/11.  We’ll give it a heads up for now and dial in details through this week as model guidance comes on line.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.