Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 24th Oct)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• NE-E/NE winds re-establish Mon 
• Stronger, mid period E/NE swell building Mon peaking Tues, easing off Wed, 
• Winds tending offshore Tues, stay tuned for updates
• Easing swells with offshore winds Wed-Fri
• Tiny on Sat, small S swell Sun
• Another round of NE windswell likely Mon/Tues next week
• Potential S swells on the radar from mid next week- check back Wed for update

Recap

Not a a great deal of quality over the Weekend with NE swell coming in a little under strength and with mostly onshore winds. Sat was in the 3-4ft range with NNE winds and Sun eased into the 3ft range, smaller 2-3ft on the Hunter with NE winds. Today is seeing mostly scrappy conditions with continuing E’ly quadrant winds- more NE in Sydney and SE on the Hunter. Swell is now in a building phase as a sub-tropical low drifts down from the Coral Sea. 

Building energy from the E/NE, conditions still second hand

This week (Oct 24-28)

A sub-tropical low which threatened SEQLD and NENSW over the weekend after it formed off the Capricorn coast is now steaming southwards at a fair clip, sliding along a high pressure ridge from a large (1035 hPa) high under Tasmania. The low is expected to merge with an inland low and horseshoe trough on the Gippsland Coast tomorrow forming a stalled low pressure gyre near Tasmania (see below) through to the end of the week. That system will direct mostly W’ly biased winds- albeit with some flukey, troughy wind periods- over the region into and over the weekend.

In the short run and tomorrow morning is still looking the goods, but you’ll have to pounce on morning offshores. The system is moving quickly and the offshore outflow of the low is expected to last for a brief period before a light N’ly flow establishes in it’s wake. Expect an early W’ly flow with strong sets to 4-5ft, with the odd bigger 6footer. Judging from NENSW, the swell peak will be brief and intense with a tail-off in size expected to set in mid morning. A N’ly flow is expected just after lunch in Sydney, later on the South Coast.

Expect a steady downward trajectory through Wed, with an offshore flow most of the day tending to light NE sea breezes from mid a’noon. There should be some 3-4ft sets early, grading down to 2-3ft in the a’noon.

Downwards trend continues through Thurs and into Fri with fun 2ft surf Thurs under similar offshore winds tending to light sea breezes.

By Friday we’ll be into babyfood territory with sub 2ft surf suitable for big boards and beginners. The stalled low near Tasmania should be showing some signs of movement by Friday with a front pushing through Bass Strait seeing winds shift to the WSW through the day. Nothing amazing but should be some surfable options for the right boards on Fri.

This weekend (Oct 29-30)

Offshore winds Sat will groom an ocean with no meaningful swell, so expect conditions to be tiny with just insignificant swells in the 1ft range. Nice for rockfishing/diving. 

Sunday may see a small bump in S swell from W’lies pushing through Bass Strait. The fetch doesn’t look like anything special at present so it’s prudent to underplay it and expect a few 2ft sets at S facing magnets, more likely through the a’noon. Expect W winds to tend W/SW before tending to light sea breezes Sun a’noon. 

Next week (Oct 31 onwards)

A high in the Tasman next week an another approaching mid-latitude low and trough system fires up a N’ly flow through Mon with a proximate fetch likely to deliver some NE windswell through the a’noon, provisionally in the 2-3ft range.

Expect this surf to hold through Tues under current modelling before the and possibly a frontal system push into the Tasman later Tues or Wed.

This may be a more favourable set-up for S swell than we have seen so far this Spring. EC model suggests possible some mid-sized S swell from mid next week. GFS is a little less bullish. 

We’ll flag it for now, and see how it its shaping up on Wed. 

In the mean-time there’s a dynamic situation in the near term to focus on.

Seeya Wed.