Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 2nd Nov)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Slight kick in S swell Wed PM at S facing beaches with fresh W’ly winds, extends into Thurs 
• Stronger pulse of S swell Thurs PM, extends through Fri with W’ly winds easing
• Fun S swell Sat with light winds, surf becoming small Sun AM, with a kick in long period S swell expected after lunch
• Couple of small days early next week before E swell starts to slowly build from Wed
• Potential for juicy E swell later next week and into the weekend as low drifts down from Coral Sea, to be near the North Island- check back Fri for updates

Recap

Nothing much to recap since Mon. Yesterday’s NE windswell came in cool, with a few sets to 2ft under offshore conditions holding into the a'noon but very NNE in angle. Today is seeing fresh W’ly winds and a tiny signal of leftover NE swell, close to flat in some places. We’ll be seeing some small S swell show through the a’noon. 

Not quite dead flat but the closest it has been for 12 months

This week (Nov2-Nov 4)

We’re in the middle of a winter-style pattern more common in August than November with a small low formed in along a front/trough line off the Gippsland Coast accelerating W’ly winds across most of the Eastern seaboard.  A series of deeper fronts and lows are also transiting the lower Tasman as part of this cold outbreak. While they are not ideally positioned for maximal S swell production up the East Coast we are still looking at some useful S swell pulses over the rest of the week and into the weekend. 

In the short run and W’ly winds are expected to quickly ease through Thursday as the front passes through and troughy area and approaching high bring a weak S to SE flow through the a’noon. Surf-wise we’ll have a small blend of S swells refracting back into the coast. No great size expected but a few 2footers are on offer, bigger 2-3ft on the Hunter. A late kick in size is possible at reliable S swell magnets across the region but wind won’t be favourable.

Friday is still looking pretty good. Pressure gradients will be slack under a weak, troughy regime as high pressure slowly works it’s way E so we should have a light/variable flow through most of the morning and light SE-E breezes through the a’noon. Allowing for the fact conditions might not be perfect we should still see some fun waves with mid period S swell in the 3ft range, bigger 4ft on the Hunter with a small boost in size through the a’noon to 3-4ft and 3-5ft on the Hunter.  Nothing amazing but a fun way to end the week. 

This weekend (Nov5-6)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. We’re looking at generally light winds both days as a weak high pressure ridge establishes across Central NSW. Expect light E’ly winds Sat, tending more NE on Sun with a good chance of morning land breezes both days.

Fridays mid period S swell will be on a slow decline through Sat with the morning still seeing some 3ft sets at S facing beaches, bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter. 

Sunday see small leftovers for the most part. The final stage of the frontal progression was very zonal in the wind alignment (see below) but a long period pulse from this source is expected Sun. Models aren't resolving the swell well but an intensification as it enters the slot should provide some sizey sets. Don’t expect this pulse to show everywhere but some 15 second period S swell should provide some solid 3-5ft sets at select S swell magnets through Sun after lunch.

Next week (Nov7 onwards)

By Monday we’ll be moving straight from a winter pattern to a classic summer pattern. High pressure in the Central Tasman sets up a nice blocking pattern with E’ly winds establishing through the Northern Tasman to Coral Sea and a light/mod E to NE wind flow through the f/cast region. Squeezing down onto this blocking pattern will be a low pressure area forming at the end of a long, angled trough reaching from the Solomon Islands down towards the North Island. 

We’ll see a couple of small days to start the week with Mon seeing a mix of leftover S swell to 2-3ft, easing through the day and small E swell to 2ft. E swell extends into Tues and Wed at similar sizes, likely just starting to muscle up a notch laterWed, under light/mod E to NE winds.

By Thurs the E’ly fetch extending from the North Island back into the Northern Tasman early next week will see E swell muscle up a notch into the 3ft range, possibly building a notch further into Fri.

The better news is a low forming off the North Island is now modelled to retrograde back inside New Zealand and into the Tasman Sea (see below). Increased wind speeds around the low will be working on an already active sea state as the fetch moves into a very favourable area of our swell window. 

It’s still a long way off so we’ll keep expectations in check for now but a nice pulse of E swell is on track for next weekend with potential for good winds as an approaching mid-latitude low brings offshores. 

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up and take a last look at the weekend.