We currently have a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea, with continuing instability across the tropics in the wake of an active, monsoon pattern. High pressure is expected to drift south of Tasmania this week, with a typical Summer NE wind pattern becoming established. Remnants of low pressure near New Zealand are offering up minor fetches out of Cook Strait (currently) and near the South Island which will supply a few small pulses of swell this week. 

After a very slow moving synoptic pattern in the Xmas-New Years week we are finally seeing some movement as the tropical low which hived off the monsoon trough now journeys into the Southern Tasman generating strong E swells, where it will merge with a surface trough currently working it’s way north along the NSW Coast.

No change to the weekend f/cast. E/NE swell across temperate NSW is continuing to be a bit weak and under-sized as the main body of the fetch remains further north and aimed at sub-tropical targets. The high in the Tasman is maintaining an onshore flow along the NSW Coast. 

We’re now on the cusp of a dynamic, tropical induced blocking pattern with low pressure hiving off an active monsoon trough in the Coral Sea and meandering in Coral Sea before drifting down into the Northern Tasman. The high pressure belt holds good support for this low pressure area with reinforcing cells stacking onto a slow moving system located at South Island latitudes. This will see an extended E’ly swell event, initially favouring sub-tropical areas and then spreading south to temperate NSW later this week.