Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 21st Oct)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• NE windswell becoming chunky Fri PM, peaking Sat and easing notch Sun
• Mod/fresh N’ly winds Sat, possibly lighter Sun as trough stalls around Jervis Bay
• NE-E/NE winds re-establish Mon 
• Stronger, mid period E/NE swell building Mon peaking Tues, easing off Wed, 
• Winds tending offshore Tues, stay tuned for updates
• Easing swells with offshore winds Wed-Fri
• Complex, troughy pattern remains so expect constant revisions!

Recap

Small surf has been on the menu, with winds generally lighter than forecast under the influence of a troughy pattern. Yesterday saw a small mixed bag of swells, generally less than 2ft with some bigger 2-3ft surf on the Hunter as some flukey S swell made landfall. That has continued onto today with sub 2ft surf across the region and some bigger surf on the Hunter. Light morning winds are now freshening from the NE with increasing NE windswell expected through the a’noon. 

Small S groundswell and NE windswell provide some shapely peaks on the Hunter

This weekend (Oct 22-23)

No great change to the weekend forecast.

Freshening NE-NNE winds through Sat, likely tending more N’ly through the a’noon. Small traces of S swell will be overshadowed by NE windswell which models seem to be slightly over-cooking. Expect size to build into the 3-4ft range overnight, topping out with a few bigger sets through the day. 

Sunday gets a tweak as far as local winds go. A trough which was expected to bring a S’ly change now looks to stall out around Jervis Bay, before being shunted back southwards again during the day. There’ll be some lighter winds around and just north of the trough line, so factor that in around that area. Otherwise, the trough may disrupt the N’ly flow briefly during the day before winds kick up again from that direction. North of Sydney N to NE winds remain moderate through the day. The proximate fetch which delivered NE windswell on Sat contracts a little eastwards which should see a slight dip in size to the 3ft range through Sun. 

Next week (Oct 24 onwards)

A trough of low pressure off the QLD Coast forms a small surface low over the weekend and this moves south Mon (see below), interacting with a strong high moving south of Tasmania and another interior low forming in a trough line late in the weekend. This potent brew intensifies the NE-E/NE fetch forming in the Coral Sea and drags it south, where it more directly impacts temperate NSW. 

Expect a mod/fresh E/NE to NE flow through Mon as the low moves south- bringing with it plenty of swell. Size should build into the 5-6ft range during the day but it won’t look pretty under straight onshore winds.

Tuesday looks a much better bet. The low moving down from QLD is expected to quickly move southwards to be off the Illawarra or South Coast , with an offshore NW to W flow developing in it’s wake. The morning should see plenty of size in the 4-6ft range, easing during the day. 

From mid next week we’ll see easing swells as the low drifts south and becomes incorporated into a massive low complex which includes a slow moving inland system. That low complex is expected to maintain an offshore flow across most of NSW from Wed-Fri, with small, leftovers easing to 2-3ft Wed and staying 2ft or less through Thurs/Fri. 

Into next weekend and we may see a small S swell generated by W’lies out of Bass Strait, but that source looks very flukey this far out and barely worth pencilling in at this stage.

Check back Mon and we’ll see how it’s shaping up. For now, it looks like a continuation of the unstable, troughy soup we are getting used to.

See you then and have a great weekend!