Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 23rd Dec)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small, weak surf Xmas weekend biggest Sat PM, suitable for kids/beginners/foamies, with light winds Sat, tending S’ly Xmas morning then NE
• Small, weak surf extends into Boxing Day
• Slow increase in E swell Wed, persists into Thurs
• Chunkier E swell expected Fri and into NY weekend- low confidence in specific due to model divergence
• More E swell expected into first week of Jan
• Still monitoring the tropics as MJO fires up monsoon trough

Recap

As expected we’ve seen easing surf since Wed as our SE swell source fades away. Yesterday saw some fun 2-3ft surf for most of the region with early light land breezes tending NE-E in the a’noon. Today has declined further with mostly 2footers, swallowed up by the big morning tides at most spots. Conditions were clean early before variable/NE winds kicked in. Santa is bringing a quiet Xmas, with more juicy surf on offer next week. Details below.

Few fun leftovers on offer yesterday before the wind got up

This weekend (Dec 24-25)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. 

Light winds for Xmas Eve morning as a trough line lingers about the South Coast, offshore for most areas before tending to light E to NE breezes in the a’noon. Expect small leftovers in the 1ft range early with a small bump in ESE swell through the mid morning to lunch-time (likely not showing until the tide drops) with a few 2ft+ sets expected- possibly tending to a few 3ft waves at some of the more reliable swell magnets. It’ll be mostly a weak, inconsistent swell though, so keep expectations low.

The trough brings an overnight shallow S’ly change Xmas Eve so expect light S’lies for Xmas morning- possibly SW at a few locations north of the Harbour. Small leftovers from the ESE will supply a weak surf in the 1-2ft range, easing through the day. By the a’noon, NE winds will kick up as high pressure moves into the Tasman, starting an extended period of summer NE winds as a block pattern establishes.

Next week (Dec 26 onwards)

Not much on offer Boxing Day with a mod NE flow and minor levels of sloppy NE windswell in the water, not exceeding 1-2ft. Perfect for a speedy run south under spinnaker for the Sydney-Hobart race.

The broad pattern will be setting up by Boxing Day with a dominant, slow moving high in the Tasman and low pressure expected to form along the monsoon trough line in the Coral Sea and in the South Pacific near the North Island. That will see at least dual swell producing fetches aimed at the Eastern Seaboard (see below), favouring the subtropical areas for most size, but filtering down to temperate NSW later in the XMas/NYE week.

Expect a fair amount of revision in possible wave heights when we come back Mon due to plenty of model divergence, but we can be confident the basic building blocks are now in place.

Small weak gurgle stays in place for Tues under current modelling- not much more than a foot or so of weak windswell with light/mod N to NE winds.

By Wed we should start to see a small but steady increase in E/NE swell from the fetches attached to the large high in the Tasman. 

Wind outlook has a high degree of confidence with a general E/NE-NE flow from Wed into Thurs.

Wave heights will likely be revised depending on the movements of the low pressure systems anchored by the high but through Wed we should see E/NE swell build to surfable heights in the 1-2ft range.

This is likely to build further into the 2-3ft range Thurs and pulse in that range through Fri into the NY weekend.

We may see a S’ly change as a trough enters the picture Fri before a stronger SE surge over the weekend as a strong reinforcing high moves SE of Tasmania over the weekend.

Stronger pulses of E quadrant swell in the 4-5ft range are likely late in the NYE weekend from the New Zealand source and early first week of Jan but there is low confidence in timing and size due to models struggling to resolve the complex low pressure development along the monsoon trough line.

Get ready for a surf pattern and expect daily revisions as we dial in the movement and strength of the E’ly fetches developing next week and into the New Year. 

Happy Xmas everyone and have a great weekend!