Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 6th Jan)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Mix of easing E and short range S swells Fri 
• S-SSE swell Sat, holding Sun with small lingering E swell
• S’ly winds remain fresh Sat, ease through Sun
• Light winds Mon next week suit beachies with fun SE swell
• Weaker S-SE wind now expected from Tues next week
• Small, fun ESE pulse expected Wed with light/mod S-SE winds
• Small surf now expected to establish late next week and into the weekend

Recap

Unruly day yesterday with strong S’ly winds, although plenty of leftover E swell in the 3-5ft range and some building short range S swell in the a’noon. Protected and semi-protected spots had a few surfable options. E swell has eased further into today with 3-4ft sets becoming inconsistent and some raggedy S swell holding plenty of size across open beaches in the 4ft range bigger 5ft on the Hunter. 

Still some sets getting into the protected spots

This weekend (Jan7-Jan8)

A slight downgrade is expected for the weekend f/cast.

A large, moderate strength high (1025hPa) moves south of Tasmania tomorrow and in conjunction with a trough of low pressure in the Tasman maintains a firm S’ly flow along the coast. Expect mod/fresh S’ly winds all day with only a brief period of lighter SW-SSW winds likely north of the Harbour to Central Coast area. Surf-wise we’re looking at moderate amounts of S-SSE swell in the 3-4ft range, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter with some small residual E swell in the 2-3ft range helping bulk out the mix. 

Generally speaking the leftover E’ly flow in the South Pacific looks weaker than modelled and thus residual E’ly swell will likely fade in the mix faster than Wed’s notes suggested.

Pressure gradients ease a notch Sun with a window of lighter SW winds more widespread across the region before light/mod S’ly winds kick in and then lay down through the a’noon. The fetch we were expecting to develop near the South Island now looks weaker and more diffuse so we’ll be relying on mid period SSE swell through Sun in the 3-4ft range initially at S facing beaches and easing through the a’noon. There will be small amounts of E swell left in the mix but don’t expect much more than the odd 2-3ft set. 

Next week (Jan9 onwards)

Pressure gradients finally ease right off for Mon with a true land breeze expected for the morning before a light/lingering SE flow puffs up as the remnants of a trough off low pressure sit in the Central Tasman. 

Clean surf in the 3ft range is expected from the SE, easing during the day.

Light winds continue into Tues with a trough and new high bringing a S-SSE change during the a’noon. This now looks weaker than models suggested but will still blow out most spots with weak 2ft surf on the menu. Plan for the early for some small beachies.

A Cook Strait fetch early next week (see below) delivers a small pulse of ESE swell likely filling in either late Tues, or, more likely overnight and holding through Wed in the 3ft range. A weak ridge will maintain light/mod SE winds.

\That weak ridge persists through most of next week under current modelling suggesting light onshore winds, with potential early morning land breezes. Surf is expected to ease as our E and S swell windows go quiet. ESE swell fades through Thurs and we’re looking at small surf in the 2ft range to pad out the end of next week and extend into the weekend.

A weak tradewind pattern looks to set up in the Coral Sea later next week and into the weekend 14/15 Jan but doesn’t look like much of a swell producer for temperate NSW in the short/medium term.

Looks like it’ll be time for a summer grovel.

Check back Mon for a fresh look at the new week and have a great weekend!