Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 30thDec)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Workable fun E/NE swell Fri with E-NE winds re-establishing
• Fun E/NE swell continues NYE, holding and easing slightly New Years Day and light/mod NE winds 
• Smaller E swell Mon, extends into Tues
• Stronger E swell fills in later Tues, peaking Wed/Thurs with S’ly winds becoming established Wed
• Mix of easing E and S swells Thurs/Fri next week
• Possible stronger S-SSE swell next weekend as low re-forms in lower Tasman
• Still monitoring the tropics as Monsoon trough remains active

Recap

Surf has been ordinary with S’ly winds yesterday blowing out most spots and surf coming in the 2ft range. Today has perked up a notch but still a bit weak and under-sized in the 2-3ft range with light winds tending E/NE during the day. 

Coming in a bit weak but some fun peaks from the E/NE starting to show

This weekend (Dec 31-Jan1)

No change to the weekend f/cast. E/NE swell across temperate NSW is continuing to be a bit weak and under-sized as the main body of the fetch remains further north and aimed at sub-tropical targets. The high in the Tasman is maintaining an onshore flow along the NSW Coast. 

Expect surf to bump up a notch tomorrow from the E/NE into the 3ft+ range but gurgly under an onshore NE flow. Enough to get a wave in for the last day of 2022.

New Years Day looks like it will come in a little under-sized compared to Wednesdays notes. Winds won’t be flash with a NE to E/NE flow expected, although wind-speeds are expected to ease off as high pressure moves away and local pressure gradients slacken. Expect more E/NE swell in the 3ft range, easing a notch into the 2-3ft range during the day. It’ll get you wet but keep expectations pegged low.

Next week (Jan2 onwards)

Whilst this E swell has been a bit of a flop for temperate NSW as the fetch remains stubbornly positioned to the north we are still on track for a couple of days of more solid swell from the E. 

The new week should start small and weak as the weekend’s E/NE swell fades back. Expect E-E/NE swell in the 2ft range with a small amount of E/SE swell in the mix. Light NE winds are on the menu.

These light NE winds continue into Tues with continuing E/NE swell in the 2-3ft range initially. We should finally see some juicier 3-4ft surf build in through the a’noon as the tropical low drifts southwards into Tasman, albeit lacking the high pressure support models initially favoured. 

This strong E swell should peak Wed in the 5-6ft range, slowly easing through Thurs. We’ll see a S’ly change at some point Wed, likely in the morning as a front pushes through, with SSE winds expected Thurs as the front eases and a trough deepens in the lower Tasman. Expect these winds to increase through the day.

Into the end of next week and we’re expecting a mix of easing E and S swell to build in Fri, possibly as early as  Thurs PM, as the deepening trough increases S’ly winds through the Tasman.

We may see the trough merge with the remnants of the low as it drifts down towards the South Island, forming a strong fetch of Sly winds through the lower Tasman. That would see increasing levels of S/SSE swell into next weekend, 7/8 Jan.

Thats still a long way off so lets see how it’s shaping up when we come back in 2023. Have a great New Years and we’ll see you next year!