Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 2nd Jan)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun E swell Mon, extends into Tues
• Stronger E swell fills in later Tues, peaking Wed/Thurs with S’ly winds becoming established Wed (possible early light winds AM)
• Mix of easing E and S swells Thurs/Fri next week
• S-SSE swell Sat, building a notch Sun PM with small lingering E swell
• Light winds Mon next week suit beachies with fun SSE-SE swell
• S’ly change likely Tues with S’lies next week
• Tracking tropical low expected to reform near North Island mid next week- stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Nothing amazing over the New Years weekend but there were workable levels of E/NE swell filtering down from the tropics. Swell pulsated in the 2-3ft range over the weekend with generally light winds in the morning which tended to E/NE-NE breezes in the a’noon. Today is offering similar conditions and size with a few fun options on the beachies at suitable stages of the tide.

Onshore but workable over the weekend

This week (Jan 2-Jan6)

A tropical low which hived off the monsoon trough and which has been providing days of chunky E swell to sub-tropical regions is now, finally, on the move. Compared to model runs the system has been much more slow moving than f/cast- which is delaying the arrival of stronger E/NE swell to temperate NSW. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a board fetch of strong E’ly winds now tracking SSW-SW back into the Tasman from a position half-way between New Caledonia and the North Island, generating solid E’ly swells which will radiate from the sub-tropics down into the temperate f/cast regions.

In the short run and we are seeing an easing of local pressure gradients so the onshore flow is expected to remain light through tomorrow, with light/variable winds for the early before a light/mod NE seabreeze kicks in. E/NE-E swell should hold in the 3ft range through the morning and lunch-time sessions before kicking up a notch (3-4ft) in the a’noon as new swell trains from the tropical low arrive.

The main body of the strong E swell is still expected Wed. Size-wise expect chunky E swell in the 4-6ft range. The issue will be winds and they look very tricky as a trough line hovers about the Sydney/Illawarra region. A light/variable flow is likely through the morning across he region, and this should continue on the Hunter/Central Coast through the day, tending to light E-E/NE breezes. A S’ly change is more likely to push through the Illawarra and Southern Sydney region through the morning, extending north of the Harbour through the day with mod/fresh S’lies becoming established. Timing is not set in stone as these troughs can stall or speed up. Stay tuned to your local wind obs. Wave quality will depend on how you can time and position yourself around these wind changes.

Into the back half of the week and winds look more stable, if unappealing. Strong S’lies are on the menu as the trough deepens and merges with the remnants of the tropical low and another high pressure ridge builds in behind it.  There’ll be plenty of strong E swell in the water through Thurs, in the 4-6ft range early, easing through the day. Coming in over the top of that will be a fast rising short range S swell whipped up by a proximate fetch to the NSW South and Central Coasts which should see surf build across open stretches to 3-5ft- bigger 6ft on the Hunter. Wind protection will be required.

By Fri E swell will be easing in the mix with some 4ft sets, dropping down through the day. Fresh/strong S’ly winds will confine surfing to protected locations. There’ll be plenty of ragged short range S swell to 4-5ft in the mix across open S exposed beaches, a complete mess in the strong wind from the same direction.

This weekend (Jan7-Jan8)

A strong high SE of Tasmania and a trough of low pressure extending through the Eastern Tasman maintains a mod/fresh S’ly flow through Sat. That will continue to be the major factor for surf quality, so you’ll need to seek protection. Surf-wise the fetch of SSE winds through the lower Tasman extending off the South Island will supply S-SSE swell in the 3ft range, bigger on the Hunter. A bit of residual E swell lingering from the tropical low and Tradewinds extending down to the North Island will supply some inconsistent background 2-3ft energy.

Sunday looks a better bet as far as winds go. We should see pressure gradient relax and lighter winds, with good odds for a morning SW land breeze (finally!) before light SE winds kick in. Along with continuing small background E swell to 2-3ft we’ll see stronger SSE swell from an intensification of the fetch near the South Island early Sat. This should see surf bump up a notch during Sun into the 3-4ft range. 

Next week (Jan9 onwards)

Another dynamic week is on the cards next week, so expect plenty of revision between now and then. 

Monday looks good at this stage with weak pressure gradients along the NSW Coast leading to light land and sea breezes. 

We should see some very fun SSE-SE swell in the 3ft range offering plenty of options across the beachies.

Light winds extend into Tues, before a possible S change as a new trough pushes up along the NSW Coast. Leftover SSE swell to 3ft eases through the day. Through the a’noon, we should see a new pulse of E/SE swell generated by a Cook Strait fetch generated by one of the low pressure remnants. Lets peg size around 3ft for now and see how the fetch shapes up.

By mid week we should see S’ly winds re-establish through the f/cast region.

Along with E/SE swell and short range S swell tending to SSE swell later next week we’ll be watching a tropical low which becomes complex as it quickly tracks SE through the Coral Sea and intensifies as it reforms in the South Pacific north of the North Island.

Models are really all over the place with the speed of this system but it does look to intensify to severe gales by mid next week. 

The North Island will be a problem with models showing the low dipping below the North Island quickly as it intensifies. Any stalling will see a legitimate E’ly groundswell possibly late next week or weekend 14/15 Jan. Under current modelling we’re looking at a quick pulse of E swell in the same time frame. 

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.