Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 21st Dec)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Gradual easing of swell and wind for the rest of the week
• Developing N/NE winds Thurs with minor NE windswell in the a’noon, persisting Fri AM
• Small, weak surf Xmas weekend biggest Sat PM, suitable for kids/beginners/foamies, with light winds
• Small, weak surf extends into Boxing Day
• Slow increase in E swell Tues, persists into Wed
• Chunkier E swell expected Thurs, easing Fri
• Monitoring the tropics as MJO fires up monsoon trough

Recap

We’ve started to see conditions settle as the slow moving Tasman Low exits the Tasman and pressure gradients ease along the coast. Size yesterday was still in the 4ft range, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter, with early offshore winds and cleanish conditions deteriorating under fresh S’lies as the day went on. Today has seen a more entrenched land breeze and cleaner conditions with easing surf in the 3ft range, 3-4ft on the Hunter. Lighter S’lies are now tending to light SE breezes as we move into a weaker, troughier synoptic environment.

Conditions starting to settle down after days of S'ly winds

This week (Dec 21-23)

With the remnants of the Tasman low now lingering near the North Island we’re looking at easing swells into the Xmas weekend. 

A brief fetch of SE winds near the South Island Mon/Tues should see some fun SE swell hold a few 2-3ft sets through tomorrow morning under light W to NW winds before NE breezes kick in through the day. Expect size to ease through the day from the SE, with a bit of marginal NE windswell possible on the South Coast.

Dribbly leftovers are on offer Fri with minor levels of SE swell and NE windswell topping out at around 2ft on open beaches. Winds should stay light though, as a trough lingers near the coast, moving offshore through the day and bringing a weak onshore flow through the a’noon. Early NW winds may offer up chances of a Shorey if you can work with the big morning new moon tides. Keep expectations low, there won’t be much energy to work with.

This weekend (Dec 24-25)

Winds look OK for Xmas Eve, in a weak, unstable troughy pattern. Light and variable all day with periods of offshore winds through the morning. As mentioned on Mon and in Craigs Xmas Forecast a fetch from the remnants of the current Tasman Low off Cook Strait is the only swell source on offer. Current model runs have this fetch looking very unimpressive so it’s best to dial down expectations. We’ll see small surf in the 1-1.5ft range through the morning and a few 2ft+ sets through the a’noon. A few reliable swell magnets may see some 3ft waves in the a’noon but expect a low energy swell with plenty of soft, slow periods. Enough to generate an appetite on.

Xmas morning will see a few leftover sets from the E/SE as the Cook Strait source dries up. Nothing much expected- just some slow 2ft sets before that eases back to dribblers in the a’noon. We’ll see light land breezes through the morning before NE sea breezes kick in through the a’noon as high pressure moves into the Tasman. 

Next week (Dec 26 onwards)

Tiny surf continues into Boxing Day with an increased N’ly flow as high pressure sits in the Tasman and a trough approaches from the Victorian interior. Expect more surf in the 1ft range with a mod/fresh N to NE flow. Perfect for the Sydney-Hobart Yacht race, not so grand for surfing.

Models are now firming on a trough of low pressure forming near the North Island early next week and retrograding in a SW direction back towards the Eastern seaboard (see below). Cradling the low will be a high pressure cell with broad fetch of SE-ESE winds developing through the Northern Tasman and into the Coral Sea early/mid next week, along with an elongated area of low pressure off the monsoon trough off the QLD Coast.

The Tasman Sea fetch is expected to generate a small, slow rising E swell through Tues, up into the 2-3ft range by close of play under typical summer E-NE winds. 

This tradewind style swell should bump up a notch through Wed into the 3ft range with continuing NE winds.

Stronger E swell is then expected Thurs from the fetch of strong winds generated by the low as it retrogrades back into the Tasman Sea. We’ll finesse this Friday but for now, we’ll peg size in the 4-5ft range Thurs with NE winds likely. We may see these winds lay down or tend NW as a trough approaches. Either way there’ll be some chunky surf on hand across the f/cast region.

This swell should ease a notch through Fri as the low pressure dissipates in the Tasman. Winds may shift S’ly as a trough pushes up the coast. 

Longer term and the monsoon trough remains active, with active potential for more low pressure development into the New Year- possibly even as early as the New Years weekend as a trough and front enter the Tasman and the lingering remnants of a low off the QLD coast combine. We’ll keep tabs on that and report back Fri. Another strong high pushing through the Bight suggests a SE surge in the first week of Jan so a flat spell looks unlikely to begin 2023.

Check back Fri for the latest.