Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 9th Jan)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Light winds Mon suit beachies with fun SE swell
• Light S-SE winds Tues with easing SE swell
• Small, fun ESE pulse expected Wed with light/mod S-SE winds
• Slight bump in size Fri from the SE, easing into Sat with NE winds
• Small, weak Summer surf Sun, extending through most of next week, suitable for a grovel
• Monitoring the tropics for potential low pressure development in the South Pacific and Coral Sea, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Conditions generally improved over the weekend as a strong S’ly flow gradually eased. Sat was the worst of it with plenty of messy S-SSE swell in the 4ft range, marred by strong S’ly winds. Sunday saw an improving trend with cleaner 3ft surf, best early under a light SW flow. Today is seeing the best of it with a true morning offshore flow grooming SE swell in the 3ft range with bigger 4ft surf at A facing beaches and some more size in the 4-5ft range on the Hunter. A week of small, fun waves is ahead with typical Summer winds. Details below.

Tasty offshore conditions with fun SE swell this morning

This week (Jan 9-13)

We currently have a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea, with continuing instability across the tropics in the wake of an active, monsoon pattern. High pressure is expected to drift south of Tasmania this week, with a typical Summer NE wind pattern becoming established. Remnants of low pressure near New Zealand are offering up minor fetches out of Cook Strait (currently) and near the South Island which will supply a few small pulses of swell this week. 

In the short run and the high pressure ridge re-sets through Tues, bringing a light/mod S to SE flow through the day which extends into Wed. Both mornings should see a window of lighter SW winds before the S-SE flow kicks in. 

Through tomorrow we’ll see leftover, mid period SSE-SE swell settle into the 2-3ft range at open beaches.

Wed is expected to see a nice little boost in ESE swell from the Cook Strait fetch today with size in the 3ft+ range on the sets, bigger 4ft on the Hunter and other exposed S swell magnets. We should see winds lay down through Wed PM as the high pressure ridge weakens. 

We’ll see high pressure move into the Tasman later this week with winds clocking around E/NE through Thurs, more NE into Fri. These winds are expected to remain light/mod so we should see a nice period of light/variable winds through the morning session with good odds for a land breeze. 

Wednesdays pulse eases quickly through Thurs with some leftover 2-3ft surf in the morning, quickly easing below 2ft during the day.

We should see a small rebuild into Fri as an off-axis fetch near the South Island supplies a small amount of SE swell, pushing wave heights back into the 2-3ft range at exposed beaches. Nothing amazing but there should be enough energy for some fun beachbreaks to end the working week.

This weekend (Jan14-15)

Not a great deal of action expected this weekend as slow moving high pressure in the Tasman maintains a NE flow, stronger on Sunday. 

Saturday morning should see a small amount of leftover SE swell, with size topping out in the 2-3ft range through the morning before easing back through the a’noon.

By Sunday we’ll be back to very small, weak windswell in the 1ft range with NE winds. A summer grovel for the very keen. Through the a’noon we may see some workable NE windswell kick up, not exceeding 2ft.

Next week (Jan16 onwards)

Weak, small and onshore surf extends into early next week, with a new high slipping SE of Tasmania on Mon. We may see a small increase in SE swell next week as a trough forms on the leading edge of the ridge, but models look very inconsistent on that outcome, s we’ll flag more weak dribble for Mon/Tues with light onshore winds at this stage.

NE winds re-establish mid next week with reasonable odds for some workable NE windswell by Wed.

The tropics does fire up again by mid next week. A tropical depression looks to form in the South Pacific between Fiji and Vanuatu with GFS suggesting a cyclone may form and potentially spend just long enough in the swell window before racing away to the SE. 

EC model maintains a depression with a SE movement oblique to the circle paths in the swell window.

That suggests keeping a lid on the froth for now as we wait for further model guidance.

We may also see a low pressure system develop off the North QLD coast through the same period, with uncertain surf potential. 

Weak Tradewinds and an E/NE flow extending into the Tasman Sea are likely to pad out surf with small Summer slop in the 1-2ft range from mid next week so while we wait for something more substantial there’ll be some grovel days ahead.

Check back Wed for the latest.