Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 4th Jan)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Stronger E swell fills in later Tues, peaking Wed/Thurs with S’ly winds becoming established Wed (possible early light winds AM)
• Mix of easing E and short range S swells Thurs/Fri next week
• S-SSE swell Sat, building a notch Sun PM with small lingering E swell
• Light winds Mon next week suit beachies with fun SE swell
• S’ly change likely late Tues with S’lies next week, bringing S swell
• Possible E swell from tropical low before it tracks behind New Zealand
• Good odds for SE swell late next week or weekend as fetch forms near South Island

Recap

E/NE swell from a retrograding tropical low saw surf build into the 3-4ft range yesterday with some 4ft+ sets on offer by the close of play. Winds remained onshore for the most part with a light/mod NE flow, although with pockets of lighter winds through the morning. Today has seen a more significant muscling up in size and period with very chunky 4-6ft E swell and some bigger 8ft bomb sets in the mix. Again, winds have remained an issue with a calm to light N’ly flow across most of the region and a S’ly change already extending through the Illawarra and making it’s way north. Protected spots have become the only option once the S’ly establishes.

Good luck getting under this one. Solid clean-up set as swell builds.

This week (Jan 4-Jan6)

After a very slow moving synoptic pattern in the Xmas-New Years week we are finally seeing some movement as the tropical low which hived off the monsoon trough now journeys into the Southern Tasman generating strong E swells, where it will merge with a surface trough currently working it’s way north along the NSW Coast. The resultant trough of low pressure will then sit near the South Island and form a well placed fetch of SSE winds aimed back at temperate NSW. This change in swell direction is expected to co-incide with some periods of more favourable winds from the weekend after an extended spell of onshore winds. 

In the short run though we’ve got some stiff S’lies to get through with the trough and new high pressure ridge setting up a firm pressure gradient along the coast. We’ll see primarily E swell in the 3-5ft range tomorrow, with a very slow easing trend but well aimed into protected spots. Through the a’noon that will be joined by a steeply rising short range S swell up into the 3-4ft range, bigger 4-5ft on the Hunter. There may be a period of lighter SW winds inshore early especially north of the Harbour but you’ll need to get in quick before the S’ly kicks in.

The working week ends with plenty of S’ly wind and a still significant amount of E swell supplying some 3-4ft sets, albeit becoming more inconsistent. Models did show some slight intensification of the low as it tracked in which may create a micro-pulse through the midday sesh. Pushing sets up a foot or so. Also in the mix will be plenty of short range S swell to 3-5ft, bigger 4-6ft on the Hunter, with an easing trend through the day offset by swell direction becoming more favourable SSE. 

This weekend (Jan7-Jan8)

Not much change expected for the weekend f/cast. Winds will be the main issue Sat with a mod S-SSE flow confining quality to protected spots. E-ESE swell is expected to linger as a result of a residual fetch of E’ly winds off the North Island and extending off the west coast of New Zealand as remnants of the trough/low and high remain slow moving on the other side of New Zealand. That should see inconsistent 3ft sets, along with surf from the SSE in the 3ft range, slightly bigger on the Hunter. 

Pressure gradients relax on Sun and we should see a morning offshore breeze, extending into early/mid morning at least before lighter SSE-SE winds kick in. Expect a similar mix of small E swell in the 2-3ft range and SSE swell to 2-3ft, with an a’noon kick in new SE swell as a fetch near the South Island Fri/Sat generates a small pulse. No great size to it but there should be some fun options on hand if you can handle a little SE wind.

Next week (Jan9 onwards)

A weak, troughy pattern kicks off next week with light winds expected Mon. That offers up clean conditions Mon morning with fun sized SE swell in the 3-4ft range at exposed breaks.

Light winds tending N’ly extend through Tues, with a trough bringing a potential late S’ly change. Smaller leftovers in the 2-3ft range Tues morning ease further through the day but there should be enough energy for some fun beachies.

By Wed a front and new high pressure cell moving south of Tasmania (typical summer latitude) is expected to establish a new S’ly flow up the NSW Coast. Models are divergent on this S’ly flow with EC suggesting the flow is enhanced by a deepening trough through the Tasman which will see increasing S-SSE swell later next week. GFS has a much more modest S’ly flow.

In addition we’ll see a Cook Strait fetch Sun/Mon generate a small ESE pulse for Tues/Wed, likely in the 2-3ft range and hampered by S’ly winds.

Longer term and both models are bullish on a fetch developing near the South Island mid/late next week suggesting a mod pulse of SE swell arriving next weekend.

We’ll also be keeping tabs on a tropical low which races down to the North Island mid next week. Models now show the low quickly tracking behind the swell shadow of the North Island but there’s still a chance it could send a pulse of E swell our way before the fetch becomes shadowed, arriving late next week.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how all these possibilities are shaping up. For now, good luck with the current E swell.