OK, we’re getting more clarity on the dynamic situation expected to unfold next week. The current small low off the North Coast quickly gets whisked away towards New Zealand and becomes enjoined in a long, NW-SE blocking trough pattern, which is expected to have more low pressure centres embedded in it next week.
Primary tabs
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/04/14/fun-options-over-the-weekend-stack-swell
freeride76
Friday, 14 April 2023
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/04/12/lots-leftover-s-swells-week-very-dynamic
freeride76
Wednesday, 12 April 2023
The broad, complex Tasman low which generated large S swells is now positioned on the other side of New Zealand with a lingering fetch of SSE-SE winds under the South Island. A much smaller, cut-off low NW of Tasmania is linked via a trough line to TC Ilsa off the Kimberly Coast and is expected to drift into the Tasman Sea tomorrow bringing a fresh S’ly flow to round off the week. A dynamic trough blocking pattern is then expected to unfold in the medium term.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/04/10/stacks-south-swell-then-swing-the-east
thermalben
Monday, 10 April 2023
A deep Tasman low positioned midway between the Apple Isle and New Zealand is responsible for the current south swell. And it's not over yet.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/04/07/seasonal-change-easter-s-swell-episode
freeride76
Friday, 7 April 2023
A mid-latitude low slips East of Tasmania overnight and deepens rapidly as it merges with an incoming frontal system. The front brings a strong W’ly flow through Sat which will herald the start of a major S swell episode.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/04/05/fun-ely-swell-replaced-much-stronger
freeride76
Wednesday, 5 April 2023
The big ticket item presently is the complex trough of low pressure off the Mid North Coast. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a proximate fetch of strong winds with embedded low end E’ly quarter gales aimed directly at the Mid North Coast.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/04/03/much-more-active-outlook-leading-and
freeride76
Monday, 3 April 2023
A small closed low forming in the trough off the Mid North Coast then slowly retracts eastwards as we head into the Easter weekend. Winds are going to be a bit tricky but we’ll have plenty of E/NE-E swell to play with this week as this E’ly fetch forms up.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/30/s-swells-do-the-work-weekend-quiet-times
freeride76
Friday, 31 March 2023
An upgrade is now expected for Sat as the low east of Tasmania deepened and produced a longer and stronger fetch of SSW winds extending north and south of Tasmanian latitudes.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/28/small-s-swell-pulses-continue-more
freeride76
Wednesday, 29 March 2023
A front sweeping in behind the trough is bringing a clearing W’ly flow through temperate NSW today, reaching the sub-tropics tomorrow. A belt of high pressure below the continent is now weakening and setting us up for a more benign pattern compared to Mondays notes. Small S swell pulses are on the menu from this frontal activity.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/27/tricky-troughy-pattern-week-few-flukey
freeride76
Monday, 27 March 2023
A small trough of low pressure off the Gippsland coast is replaced by another trough system later in the week. Far to the south of this hot, soupy mess a series of stronger polar lows are traversing the Far Southern Ocean, supplying some small pulses of S swell.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/23/eyes-the-south-next-week-very-uncertain
freeride76
Friday, 24 March 2023
Long period S swells will be the dominant swell trains next week as a series of deep low traverse the far southern Tasman Sea and become slow moving in New Zealand longitudes.
