A deepening mid-latitude low moving across us will bring some northerly windswell followed by short-range southerly energy.
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By Sun morning we should see a low NW of Tas with a secondary system further away in the Tasman towards the South Island.
Models have been flip-flopping but we are starting to have some confidence on a frontal system and the cut-off low entering the Tasman this weekend or early next week.
Winds may shift more N’ly through Bass Strait and up towards the South Coast later Thurs into Fri, bringing a spike in NE windswell.
Winds feeding into the southern flank of the low are well aimed at Tasmania and we’ll see more strong SE tending E/SE swell tomorrow.
That low is expected to slowly drift and dissipate through the week, maintaining elevated surf through to mid-week with a very slow easing trend in place and a pulse of E/SE swell Thurs.
A secondary front pushing into the Tasman coalesces with a deepening low near New Zealand and the system then retrogrades back into the Tasman over an already active sea state delivering powerful E/SE swell before taking up residency in the Central Tasman for a few days next week with a slow, slow easing in big swells expected.
Into the weekend and the low retrogrades back towards Tasmania over the weekend with plenty of size expected from the S/SE-SE.
The coming period will be dominated by south and then south-east swell energy.
There should be some fun small east peaks on the weekend, with some larger localised south swell for next week.