Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri June 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized S-S/SE swell building Sat with strong S/SW winds
• Large mix of S swell and SE groundswell Sun with strong S/SW winds
• Still strong SE swell Mon
• Slowly easing levels of SE swell next week (remaining sizey) with S/SW winds Mon/Tue

Recap

Small fun NE windswell yesterday to 4ft ubnder strong cross-shore winds, then eased quickly today as winds shifted strong SW, bringing an increase in S swell to 3-5ft at S facing beaches.

This weekend and next week (Jun 14 - 21)

No great change to the broadscale pattern this weekend. A secondary front pushing into the Tasman coalesces with a deepening low near New Zealand and the system then retrogrades back into the Tasman over an already active sea state delivering powerful E/SE swell before taking up residency in the Central Tasman for a few days next week with a slow, slow easing in big swells expected. 

Freshening S’ly winds through Sat as the low starts to retrograde and pressure gradients tighten will be on the menu. Expect mod/fresh S/SW winds to tend S’ly and increase in strength through the day. We’ll see increasing levels of S swell along with that, from 3-4ft, pushing up to 5-6ft in the a’noon. 

Strong S’lies continue into Sun, likely with gusts to 30kts so you’ll need to find some wind protection. Strong winds to low end gales will rebuild S’ly swells through the day and in the a’noon we’ll see an increase in new S/SE groundswell into that highly energetic mix. No change to the size estimates for Sun/Mon. We’re still looking at very large 10ft+ surf from the S/SE-SE Sun, holding into Mon morning before a slow easing.

There’ll be a broad spectrum of E quadrant winds feeding into the low early next week which should see swells from the S/SE-SE through Tues and into Wed. Likely still in the 4-6ft range Tues and easing to 3-4ft through Wed. Hopefully with plenty of high quality banks to go with the  A grade conditions. We’ll see winds settle during this time, tending more SW on Tues and W-W/SW on Wed.

Further ahead and variable/N’ly winds are likely Thurs into Fri. We may see a weaker front join the decaying low (see below) but at this stage windspeeds look modest so we’re looking at a small pulse in S swell possible  Fri and extending into Sat.

Plenty to stay focussed on in the meantime. Check back Mon for the latest notes and until then, have a great weekend!