South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Apr 2nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S/SE swells Thurs
• Long range S/SE groundswell showing Wed PM, holding Thurs, easing Fri (flukey and favouring NENSW)
• Light SE winds through Thurs and Fri
• Small leftovers Sat with light winds
• New S swell building Sun across NENSW, smaller in SEQLD
• Moderate S pulse Tues/Wed next week- favouring NENSW for size
• Eyeing off tropical developments longer term, still early days so check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

Very uneven distribution of size from the Tasman low yesterday with surf across the MNC to Coffs up in the 8-10ft range, smaller 4-6ft at Yamba and smaller 4ft surf at Ballina-Byron and barely showing in SEQLD. Today is seeing messy 2-3ft surf in SEQLD, 3-4ft down to Ballina and still in the 6-8ft range on the MNC. 

Rapidly building swells just north of Coffs yesterday

This week (Mar 31-Apr 4)

As of this morning our deep Tasman low (984hPa) is still slow moving although high pressure support has slipped in under the low with the strongest winds now aimed more at Tasmania. We’ll see the low meander towards the South Island for the remainder of the week, with large swells on the ease across Southern/Central NSW, much less size into the sub-tropics. A trough is sitting off the SEQLD coast directing moist SE winds along the region.  A series of fronts then push into the Tasman over the weekend and early next week bringing S swell pulses, with some size expected. 

In the short run tomorrow we’ll see SE winds as the trough lingers off the SEQLD coast, although weakening during the day. Early winds should tend SW for most of the region. We’ll see a mix of swells with S/SE swells from the Tasman low still dominant in the 4-5ft range across NENSW, easing to 2ft in SEQLD, along with some short range SE swell to 2-3ft and long range S/SE ice shelf swell. Winds will be a bit annoying as they linger from the SE but they should stay light enough to surf most of the day. 

Very pleasant mop-up day expected for Fri with leftover swells hovering in the 3ft range with the occ. 4ft set.  Winds should be good for the early with W-W/SW breezes before clocking around SW-S then light S/SE. 

This weekend (Apr 5-6)

We’ll see a moderate front push through Bass Strait and across Tas on Sat, driving offshore winds up through Central NSW. North of Seal Rocks should be gentle winds with morning offshores and light a’noon seabreezes as weak pressure gradients sit over NENSW/SEQLD. Small, fun waves to be had favouring S facing beaches with a few small leftovers from the S-S/SE in the 2-3ft range. 

Sunday looks better for size with 3-4ft of mid-period S swell filling in across S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 2ft at S facing beaches in SEQLD in the a’noon. Light winds are expected, offshore in the morning, tending to S-SE breezes in the a’noon.

Next week (Apr 7 onwards)

A front passing into the Tasman Mon now looks a notch stronger than first noted on Mon. We should see an increase in pre-frontal W-W/NW winds Mon before winds shift  SW-S as the front pushes aggressively into the Tasman. Surf is likely to be tiny/flat through Mon.

Not so for Tues. Under current modelling a steep spike in S swell should result with size up into the 4-6ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at SEQLD S facing beaches. SW-S winds are expected.

Size should hold through Wed AM , with an easing in the a’noon but winds will be from the S quadrant (W-W/SW early before tending SW-S) so exposed open S facing spots will be wind affected. 

We’ll see a further easing into Thurs with high pressure moving into the Tasman. That should see light winds Wed, tending N’ly through Thurs. 

Further ahead and we may see some tropical developments later next week with major models suggesting low pressure development in the Coral Sea, possibly drifting southwards and offering E swell potential initially favouring the sub-tropics. Early days there so we’ll just flag it for now and see if it’s still there on Fri.

More frontal activity expected next week too, although a bit less favourably positioned with high pressure tending to shunt it away from the southern swell window.

We’ll see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then.