Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri June 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small fun surf Sat with easing winds
• Tiny Sun
• Not much on offer early next week

Small NE swell possible Wed/Thurs

• Small NE windswell Thurs/Fri
• S swell spike likely next weekend, check back Mon for details

Recap

Solid SE swell has continued to pump, swinging more E/SE with size yesterday in the 3-5ft range with SW-S winds. Size is holding up well into this morning with 4ft sets and light SW winds shifting S’ly through the day. 

This weekend and next week (Jun 21 - 28)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. The trough and remnants of the Tasman Low will strengthen a SW-S/SW flow across the NE today into tomorrow with winds expected to ease through the a’noon as the trough moves north, possibly tending variable and W’ly late in the day as high pressure moves to the north of the state. Fun leftovers from the E/SE to 3ft early, easing during the day. That will be the last day of the swell so make the most of it.

Variable winds Sun so great conditions for all day surfing. Only tiny leftovers to 1 occ. 2ft though so bring a big board to the beach.

Next week looks like a good week to fix dings and catch up on other chores that may have been neglected. Easing swells and a few small  days ahead next week with generally light N’ly winds. Expect tiny surf Mon and Tues.

NW-W/NW winds freshen Wed as a cut off low approaches the state. We may see some NE wrap from winds in Bass Strait later Wed. Models are also suggesting some minor E/NE swell from winds near the North Island. Both look like flukey sources, topping out at 2ft at best.

Winds may shift more N’ly through Bass Strait and up towards the South Coast later Thurs into Fri, bringing a spike in NE windswell, possibly into the 2-3ft range under fresh NW winds. We’ll see how that looks on Mon.

The next major item to look out for is a complex low and frontal system which looks to approach the southern swell window next weekend (see below). Models are still divergent but that should see a renewal in S swell, possibly sizey later next weekend and extending into Mon 1/7.

We’ll see how that is shaping up on Mon. Hope you got a few from this last run of swell. 

Check back Mon for the latest notes and until then, have a great weekend!