Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed June 26th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Marginal NE windswell Thurs/Fri
• Small NE windswell building Sat
• Likely a spike in new S-S/SE swell Sun PM with fresh W winds
• New S swell spike likely Mon, extending into Tues with fresh SW-S winds
• More SE swell next week with easing winds

Recap

No real swells to speak of with small leftovers to 1-1.5ft from the SE and a tiny signal of NE winsdswell to a similar size (1-1.5ft) today with mod N tending NW winds.

This week and next week (Jun 26 -July5)

As mentioned in Mondays notes, the Tasman sea is benign this week with a weak high cell sitting over NSW and slowly moving into the Tasman. All the action remains in the Bight and SW corner with a complex series of slow moving cut-off lows in that region (see Craigs’ Victorian/WA notes for details). Our benign outlook runs into the weekend and right through it so there’ll be a few days better suited for rockfishing/inshore diving ahead. Finally, over the weekend one of the cut-off lows moves into the Tasman with a sizey S swell spike expected before a smaller regime of S-SE swells and winds from the same direction as a southwards situated high maintains a ridge from Tasmania right upon the eastern seaboard.

No major swell sources for the rest of the week so expect very low energy surf zones. Tiny surf both Thurs and into Fri with mod/fresh W/NW-NW winds as a cut-off low approaches and then dissipates W of Tasmania. 

Into the weekend and pre-frontal N’ly winds freshen through the entrance to Bass Strait, with surfable NE windswell to 2-3ft during the day and winds shifting NW-W/NW later in the day.

By Sun morning we should see a low NW of Tas with a secondary system further away in the Tasman towards the South Island. The proximate fetch of strong S/SE winds to low end gales will initially see freshening NW tending W’ly winds through Sun. A late increase in new S/SE swell from winds below the Island is on the cards with surf building to 3ft in the a’noon.

Source of new S/SE swell Sun PM

By Mon the low moves NE of the state and gales proximate to the Island will whip up a strong spike in new S-S/SE swell to 6ft+ with fresh and gusty S-S/SE winds confining surf to more sheltered spots.

Tuesday looks solid as well with a mix of strong S-S/SE swell to 5-6ft and E/SE swell from the fetch nearer New Zeealand to 3-4ft. Winds still look troublesome with mod S’lies tending S/SW during the day.

We should see winds ease by mid next week as high pressure slides Eastwards and pressure gradients ease as the high approaches Tasmania. Light offshores and N’ly breezes are likely. Models are suggesting a fetch lingering near New Zealand and across the Northern Tasman will hold some small SE-E swell later next week. 

Confidence is low this far out but we’ll definitely see more action next week, even if winds look a bit iffy.

Check back Fri for the latest look at it.

Seeya then.