Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon June 24th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Not much on offer early this week- tiny Tues/Wed
• Small NE windswell Thurs/Fri
• Small NE windswell into Sat
• Tiny/flat Sun into Mon
• S swell spike likely Mon, extending into Tues
• More SE swell next week

Recap

Fun sized SE leftovers to 3-4ft on Sat under light winds provided good surf. Sunday eased back to 2ft and there are still a few 2ft sets on offer today under light NW’ly winds.

This week and next week (Jun 24 -July5)

All the action is in the Bight at the moment, with a deep slow moving  cut-off low. The Tasman Sea, by contrast, is looking very mellow with a weak high pressure cell over NSW and a few decaying remnants of the long lasting Tasman Low sitting near New Zealand. A sub-tropical low on the other side of the North Island is completely blocked from our swell window by that Island. Those weak pressure gradients across our main S-SE swell windows will lead to a very quiet week swell wise, with mostly offshore NW-W winds. Details below.

Not a great deal to froth over this week with tomorrow morning seeing a few clean leftovers to 1 occ. 2ft at swell magnets , dropping back to tiny in the a’noon. Nice clean conditions with W tending NW winds. Tiny again through Wed and into Thurs with most beaches flat or close to it apart from the possibility of some small NE winds swell wrap out of Bass Strait Thurs. Looks a very low confidence event but might be worth putting an eye on it Thurs a’noon for some 1-1.5ft surf.

Fri a’noon looks a slightly better bet for some 1-2ft NE windswell as pre-frontal winds freshen across Bass Strait.

That should hold in the 2ft range through Sat with freshening NW winds.

Back to tiny flat on Sun.

Models have been flip-flopping but we are starting to have some confidence on a frontal system and the cut-off low entering the Tasman this weekend or early next week. It’s likely to be tiny on Mon morning  and offshore before we see a building trend in S swell later Mon into Tues, possibly up into the 5-6ft range. 

Both major models are then suggesting some sort of low moving either into the Central Tasman, or further north (see below).

Source of S swell early next week

That would generate S tending SE swells by mid week, with winds likely from the same direction. 

Let’s see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then.