Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon June 17th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Slowly easing levels of SE swell Tues/Wed (remaining sizey) with S/SW winds Mon/Tue
• New pulse of E/SE swell Thurs with SW winds
• E/SE swell easing Fri with S swell increasing in the a’noon under SW-S winds
• Small over the weekend
• Not much on offer next week

Recap

Small fun NE windswell to 2-3ft on Sat was replaced by very large SE swell to 8-10ft Sun as a deep Tasman Low retrograded back into the Tasman. Conditions were wild and woolly under fresh S’ly winds. Winds have mellowed out today and size has dropped back to 5-6ft. 

This week and next week (Jun 17 - 28)

We’ve got a deep low (988 hPa) semi-stationary in the Central Tasman with strong high pressure support south-west of Tasmania and a broad coverage of strong winds to low end gales through the southern Tasman. That low is expected to slowly drift and dissipate through the week, maintaining elevated surf through to mid-week with a very slow easing trend in place and a pulse of E/SE swell Thurs. We’ll see a rebuild in more bog standard S swell Fri as remnants of the low gets captured by a cold front pushing into the Tasman. Plenty  of solid surf on offer this week. 

With the squeeze between the low and the high expect S’ly winds to persist through tomorrow and into Wed at mod strength, with morning SW breezes. Wed may see a slightly more S/SW flow compared to tomorrow. 

Plenty of swell both days as winds remain strong around the southern flank of the low. We should see surf to 4-6ft tomorrow, easing to 3-5ft on Wed. 

By Thurs we’ll see winds shift more SW as a front approaches with a new pulse of E/SE swell from eastern quadrant winds feeding into the low. That should see surf rebuild to 4-5ft.

The front brings more SW-S winds on Fri with E/SE swell to 4ft, easing and S swell building to 3ft in the a’noon.

Easing swells over the weekend with small leftovers from the SE to 2-3ft on Sat under offshore winds. Winds tend more variable on Sun with NE sebreezes in the a’noon and a small blend of S and SE swells to 1-2ft.

Into next week and not much on the radar. Looks like a few tiny days to start the week.

We may see a fetch near the South Island send some E/SE swell later Tues into Wed but at this stage confidence is low due to model divergence.

Let’s see how it looks on Wed.
Seeya then.