Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed June 19th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• New pulse of E/SE swell Thurs with SW-S winds
• E/SE swell easing Fri with S swell increasing in the a’noon under SW-S winds
• Small fun surf Sat with light winds
• Tiny Sun
• Not much on offer early next week
• Small SE swell possible Wed/Thurs
• Small NE windswell Thurs/Fri

Recap

Solid SE swell has maintained elevated wave heights across NETas with yesterday in the 5-6ft range and today of a similar size. Early winds were W with winds swinging SW-S both days. 

This week and next week (Jun 19 - 28)

995 hPa low still sitting in the Central Tasman, but the supporting high pressure cell has slipped in underneath the low and as a result we’re seeing a slowly diminishing SE’ly fetch and easing pressure gradients both in the Tasman and along the coastal fringe. Incredibly the low remains in the Tasman, right through the week and into the weekend, re-energised by an approaching cut-off low and trough and a new supporting high pressure cell. In comparison to the current event it’s a much more subdued system.

In the short run, no change to the outlook. Winds feeding into the southern flank of the low are well aimed at Tasmania and we’ll see more strong SE tending E/SE swell tomorrow to 4-5ft with SW tending S/SW winds through the day.

Similar winds Fri, although tending more S’ly and slowly easing E/SE-SE swell from 4-5ft to 4ft through the day as the Tasman Low slowly winds down. We’ll see some short range S swell build in later Fri.

Into the weekend and Sat will be the last day of the swell with light offshore winds tending to light SE breezes in the a’noon. Expect E’ly swell to 3ft easing during the day.
By Sun we’ll see small leftovers to 1-2ft.

Next week will be much quieter. Tiny through Mon and Tues with offshore NW winds.

We may see a little bump in SE swell Wed into Thurs as remnants of the low near the South Island provide last one pulse . No great size expected and models aren’t in terrific agreement. We wouldn’t expect anything bigger than 2-3ft but winds should be offshore as a front approaches from the west, so it may be worth pencilling in at this early stage. Let's see how that looks Friday.

Otherwise, we may see a small one day NE windswell as the front approaches, most likely on Thurs, easing Fri.

We’ll see how that looks on Fri.

Seeya then.