Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed June 12th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S swell Thu with W/SW tending S winds
• Building S windswell Fri with strengthening S/SW tending S winds
• Moderate sized S/SE swell building Sat with strong S/SW winds
• Large SE groundswell Sun with strong S/SW winds
• Still strong SE swell Mon
• Slowly easing levels of SE swell next week (remaining sizey) with S/SW winds Mon/Tue

Recap

Small fun NE windswell yesterday to 4ft ubnder strong cross-shore winds, then eased quickly today as winds shifted strong SW, bringing an increase in S swell to 3-5ft at S facing beaches.

This week and weekend (Jun 12 - 16)

We have a favourably positioned node of the Long Wave Trough ready to steer a strong cold front well into sub-tropical latitudes in the Tasman and Southern Coral Seas. Following that a secondary front coalesces with the primary front to form a complex Tasman low which is expected to occupy the Tasman for a meaningful period of time, even retrograding back towards the East Coast over the weekend. The result will be multiple swell pulses from the S to SE (some very significant) right through until mid next week. Just as a caveat there is still a bit of model variance from run to run so we’ll continue to expect some more revision/fine-tuning as we get closer to the event.

Todays pulse quickly eases back from 4-5ft to 2-3ft as the front moves north and away from the Tasmanian swell window with W/SW tending S’ly winds.

Those winds should remain mod/fresh S’ly tending SE as a secondary front joins a developing low near New Zealand. Expect surf to build from the S with mid period swell to 3-4ft during the day.

Into the weekend and the low retrogrades back towards Tasmania over the weekend (see below) with plenty of size expected from the S/SE-SE. We’ll see building size on Sat from 3ft up to 5-6ft but winds will be fresh from the S/SW so you’ll need some shelter.

Strong SE swell peaks on Sun in the 12-15ft range as gale force winds aim up directly at Tasmania. Only sheltered spots on the menu as winds remain fresh/strong from the SW-S/SW. 

Surf remains strong into Mon, although easing from Sundays peak.

The low is expected to occupy the Tasman for the better part of next week, slowly dissipating through this time frame. If this holds we’re looking at very slow easing trend of large surf through next week with SW-S’ly winds for the most part with winds 

Pencil in large 6ft+ surf Tues, easing back to 4-5ft Wed and 3-5ft Thurs.

We’ll use those for ballpark figures and adjust on Fri.

Lots of surf at a minimum, with good conditions.

Check back Fri for a last look at the weekend and we’ll see how next week is shaping up.

Seeya then.