A much stronger front and parent low tracks NE into the lower Tasman late this week with a broad band of gales to strong gales expected to generate some strong S swell late this week and into the weekend.
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Fri should be a different story. Strong S swell expected to build Fri and extend into Sat as a front with gales to strong gales tied to a complex parent low drifts slowly through the far Southern Tasman.
Into next week and not much happening to start the new week. High pressure moves quickly into the Tasman, with winds shifting NW-NE then SW-SE as a trough pushes through a shallow change.
Absent that, with weak high pressure in the Tasman we’ve only got local wind swells to keep wave zones active this week, and into next. Let’s take a look.
NE winds off the South Coast extend down to Bass Strait and freshen o/night Tues into Wed with increasing NE windswell expected Wed.
A compact low is tracking SE away from Tasmania with a nice slingshot fetch in the process of entering the Tasman adjacent to the Apple Isle. A retrograding fetch in the South Pacific is currently active and expected to send some fun surf our way over the weekend.
We’re midway through the current pattern with a high pressure cell near New Zealand directing fresh NE winds towards Tasmania, weakening trough in the Tasman and an approaching complex low SW of Tasmania.
Very active pattern to start the week with a large high (1029hPa) moving E of Tasmania and active Monsoon Trough extending in to the Coral Sea and an approaching complex low well to the SW of Tasmania.
A major swell is possible from Wed as a deep low may form in a a trough line either E of Tasmania or off the Gippsland coast, possibly moving up off the NSW South Coast - enhanced by extra warm water pooled up in that region.
The high pressure belt remains positioned well to the south with continuing troughiness and NE wind episodes ahead.