Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 10th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr

• Small surf Thurs/Fri this week with flush of S swell Sat, peaking Sun, easing Mon
• NE windswell episode possible Mon/Tues
• Another low may form E of Tasmania  next week with large swells- check back Fri for revisions

Recap

Solid S and NE swells yesterday saw surf to 4-5ft, easing during the day with S’ly winds tending light/variable through the day. Still some swell around today, mostly from the NE-E/NE in the 3ft range with NW winds tending SE/SW in the a’noon. 

This week and next week (Jan10 - Jan19)

The compact low near Tasmania is now skipping away to the SE with a large high SE of the South Island (1034 hPa) interacting with a broad low pressure trough in the South Pacific which will supply E’ly quadrant swell in the near term as the low pressure trough retrogrades back towards the east coast. The high pressure belt remains positioned well to the south with continuing troughiness and NE wind episodes ahead. We’re still in a holding pattern in the tropics with nothing major yet to form  despite an active phase of the MJO. 

In the short run and no change to the outlook- easing swells back to tiny 1-2ft on Thurs, even smaller Fri with winds generally shifting N’ly over this period (maybe W’ly Thurs morning as a front passes through).

Into the weekend and we may see some tiny NE windswell and E/NE swell Sat morning to 1-2ft before a trough and front bring a S’ly change with building short S’ly swell in the a’noon to 2ft.

Sun looks a better bet for more solid S swell to 2-3ft at S facing beaches with a board but weak front passing under the state (see below). 

Broad, weak front brings some S swell this weekend

Next week sees high pressure approach the state and bring settled conditions through Mon with S swells to 2-3ft and some small E/NE swells from the sub-tropics to 2ft. Early SE winds should tend light/variable then NE in the a’noon as the high slips East of the state. 

Further ahead and we may see some small NE windswell as the high sits in the central Tasman, most likely Tues into Wed.

Towards the end of next week GFS is still favouring a deep low forming E of Tasmania in a trough line Thurs, which potentially offers sizey SE-E swells to end next week (see below).

Low confidence on this outlook. 

We’ll keep tabs on all these prospects and hope something takes hold during this active tropical phase. At a minimum winds off the top of the high look to maintain at least 2ft of NE quadrant swell through the end of next week (if the low doesn’t form).

Check back Fri for the latest.