Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 22nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small pulses of inconsistent E/NE swell Sun, persisting Mon/Tues
• Easing S swell Tues with light winds tending NE
• Workable NE windswell Wed with winds tending offshore in the a’noon
• Nothing much for the end of the week and into the weekend
• Small/tiny surf continues into next week

Recap

Small pulses of S swell over the weekend with Sat seeing surf in the 2-3ft range with light winds which tended N’ly in the a’noon. Sun was a notch bigger through the a’noon as new S swell built in to 2-3ft on the back of a front which brought S’ly winds. Today has seen more swell from the S with fresh S’ly winds and size to 3ft at S facing beaches. Small amounts of E/NE swlel are in the mix.

This week and next week (Jan22 - Feb2)

All the headline action is in the tropics with a cyclone (TC Kirrily) expected to form within the next 24-36hrs in the monsoon trough NE of Cairns. A coastal crossing in N.QLD now looks the most likely outcome with limited surf potential for Tasmania.

Looking south to more local sources then, we have a relatively weak high (1022 hPa) moving under Tasmania with a long trough and front in the Tasman directing a S’ly fetch through the Central-Southern Tasman which has generated S swell now easing.

In the short run, we’re looking at small amounts of E/NE swell providing inconsistent 2ft sets with light winds tending NE in the a’noon as high pressure moves SE of the Island state.

NE winds off the South Coast extend down to Bass Strait and freshen o/night Tues into Wed with increasing NE windswell expected Wed, up into the 3-4ft range with fresh N’lies tending NW in the a’noon as a front approaches.

This will see winds shift to the W-NW on Thurs with small leftover from the NE and E/NE to 1-2ft at best.

Friday looks similar with fresh NW-W winds and tiny surf -1-1.5ft most likely. 

Into the weekend and not much action is expected as weak, troughy areas sun to the NE of Tasmania with a light W’lky flow and tiny/flat surf expected.

Next week looks relatively quiet- we may see some small NE windswlel develop later Mon and into Tues as NE winds build off Bass Strait but size is only expected to be 1-2ft at this stage.

Further ahead and we may see a trough bring a small flush of S swell mid next week but it doesn’t look like much at this stage.

Otherwise the tropics remains active so we’ll keep monitoring that - although the focus of most of the modelled activity is over the continent there is a large area of low pressure expected to form near Vanuatu later next week. We’ll keep eyes on that region and report back Wed.

Seeya then.