Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell episode Tues, becoming sizey Wed with fresh NE winds
• Winds swing offshore Thurs as low approaches, clean NE windswell easing during the day
• Late kick in new S swell Fri
• Fun S swell Sat
• Small pulses of inconsistent E/NE swell Sun, persisting Mon
• Possible new low forming next week with robust E/NE swell then S swell, low confidence in specifics, check back Wed for revisions

Recap

Small S swells on Sat in the 1-2ft range with onshore S-SE winds. Size perked up to 2ft on Sun at S facing beaches with early light winds tending S’ly through the day. Small again today with 1-2ft surf and NE winds freshening through the a’noon.

This week and next week (Jan15 - Jan26)

Very active pattern to start the week with a large high (1029hPa) moving E of Tasmania  and active Monsoon Trough extending in to the Coral Sea and an approaching complex low well to the SW of Tasmania. Add in a long tradewind fetch in the South Pacific. All these features are potential sources of surf in the short to medium term. 

In the short run we’ll see N/NE-NE winds freshen tomorrow off the back of the high with NE windswell developing in the a’noon to 2-3ft.

That fetch strengthens further as the complex low approaches and tightens pressure gradients down the South Coast and Bass Strait. Strong NE windswell builds to 6ft during the day Wed with fresh/strong NE winds.

Those winds shift W/NW-W o/night as the low approaches so get in early for super clean 3-4ft leftovers, easing during the day as the fetch gets shunted eastwards. 

The approaching low drives W’ly gales through Bass Strait on Fri so expect tiny surf to start with and a late kick in new S swell as SW winds come around the southern corner of Tas and start to generate new S swells. We should see surf build to 2-3ft late in the day.

The low then skips away quickly top the SE on Sat with S swell to 3ft early, easing during the a’noon under current modelling. W-W/NW winds tend to light seabreezes during the day. 

Sunday sees a small mixed bag with E/NE swell filtering  down from the Southern under  Pacific fetch showing some inconsistent 2ft sets in the a’noon as a new high pressure ridge builds in across the state.

Into next week and fun levels of E/NE swell continue to 2ft with some 3ft sets under light winds.

Further ahead and we may see another low form near Tasmania Tues with a potential strong NE swell building Tues before a return flow from the S sees plenty of S swell on Wed.

Models are mixed on this so we’ve got low confidence this far out. Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s looking.