Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 17th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Winds swing offshore Thurs as low approaches, clean NE windswell easing during the day
• Late kick in new S swell Fri
• Fun S swell Sat
• Small pulses of inconsistent E/NE swell Sun, persisting Mon/Tues
• Possible new low approaching Tas next week with robust NE swell Wed then S swell, low confidence in specifics, check back Fri for revisions

Recap

Building NE swells yesterday to 3ft under fresh N-NE winds. Size has increased further to day with strong NE windswell to 4-5ft under fresh NE winds with late shift to the W/NW expected as a low approaches.

This week and next week (Jan17 - Jan26)

We’re midway through the current pattern with a high pressure cell near New Zealand directing fresh NE winds towards Tasmania, weakening trough in the Tasman and an approaching complex low SW of Tasmania. In the South Pacific we have a retrograding trough of low pressure along a tradewind band and finally,the Northern Australian Monsoon (NAM) is in full swing and a tropical low is expected to bud off the end of the monsoon trough into and over the weekend, with a reasonable likelihood of cyclogenesis into next week. Still plenty of uncertainty there over intensity, track and surf potential, especially as far south of Tasmania.

In the short run and get onto it Thurs as clean leftovers to 2-3ft are groomed by offshore winds. They’ll tend W/SW through the a’noon with size easing to 2ft or less through the a’noon. 

W/SW to SW winds Fri as the low starts to move under the state, with a late kick in new S swell to 2-3ft likely.

The low generates more S swell into Sat- peaking in the morning in the 4ft range with light winds tending to a’noon nor-east seabreezes.

A small mixed bag is expected for Sun with minor S swell and some minor E/NE swell filtering down from the South Pacific fetch- all up offering some 1-2ft peaks under light winds.

E/NE swell perks up Mon as size and period build a notch with some 2 occ. 3ft sets and winds tending SE as a new high slips under the state.

Similar size from the E/NE into Tues with winds shifting E/NE-NE as high pressure moves into the Tasman.

We may see some NE windswell start to develop by the a’noon.

Further ahead and an approaching low looks to really ramp up NE winds and subsequent windswell on Wed with size potentially up to 4-5ft.

Potential for another round of sizey NE windswell from approaching low

We may see winds shift W’ly as the low passes under the state, offering a window of great surf later Wed or Thurs. Stay tuned for updates. S swell from the low passing into the Tasman is a possibility late next week.

Meanwhile in the Coral Sea we’re likely to be tracking a tropical cyclone. While confidence is still low this far out, we’re starting to see some broad model agreement on a southwards track, with firming odds for a large swell for the sub-tropics by mid next week. 

Much more needs to happen for any potential TC to be a major swell source for NE Tasmania, such as moving into the Northern Tasman, potentially undergoing extra-tropical transition as it does so. Thats still a long way off, so we’ll track model runs over the next 36 hrs and report back Fri.

Seeya then.