Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 8th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong S-S/SE swell Tues as low drifts E of Tasmania
• NE swell from low holds into Tues, eases quickly Wed
• Small surf later this week with possible flush of S swell Sat
• NE windswell episode possible early next week
• Another low may form E of Tasmania mid next week with large swells- check back Wed for revisions

Recap

Small S swell to 1ft on Sat was replaced by much stronger NE swell Sun, building to 3-4ft during the day. That size has hung in there today with early light winds before S/SW-S winds freshened as a low formed NE of the state. New S’ly swell is now filling through the a’noon.

This week and next week (Jan8 - Jan19)

We’ve got a very unstable pattern as the MJO sweeps across Northern Australia and convective activity penetrates the country via a long trough and NW cloud band, linking up with a developing low off the North-East coast of Tasmania. The low east of Tasmania supplies plenty of strong S-SE swell through the short term with an easing trend back to small background swells this week.

In the short run get in tomorrow for strong S swells to 5-6ft tending more S/SE in the a’noon. Early strong S’ly winds shift W-W/NW in the a’noon  as a weak front approaches. There’ll be some workable NE swell to 3ft still in the mix from winds feeding into the low.

The low moves E on Wed and swells will ease pretty rapidly once it does. Leftover swells from the S/SE will top out at around 2-3ft Wed morning, clean under NW winds. An easing trend is expected in the a’noon. 

Rest of the week will be small and insignificant, dropping down into the 1ft range or less through Thurs and Fri with a small chance of a slight increase in NE windswell Fri a’noon (possibly into the 1-1.5ft range).

Into the weekend and a small mixed bag Sat of minor NE-E/NE swells to 1ft or so and minor S swell from a passing zonal front offering up 1-2ft surf from the S. 

A high moving under Tasmania on Sun brings SE tending E winds as a weak ridge sets up then eases. Small background swells from the E/NE filtering down from the sub-tropics will remain smaller than 2ft.

Next week offers the chance of some workable NE windswell possibly later Mon into Tues as high pressure in the Tasman builds a NE fetch off the Gippsland coast down to Bass Strait ( see below). We’ll pencil in 2-3ft surf and see how it looks on Wed.

We may see another juicier S swell if a low forms E of Tasmania in a trough mid next week. That may see gales develop adjacent to Tasmania and large swells develop Wed.

That's a long way off with low confidence so we’ll flag it for now and see how it looks on Wed. 

Seeya then.