Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 29th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small short range S swell Tues
• Minor surf Wed/Thurs
• Sizey S swell building Fri, peaking Sat
• S swell easing quickly Sun
• Small, weak surf next week

Recap

Not much over the weekend with only tiny swells Sat in the 1-2ft range, even smaller Sun and remaining in the 1ft range today with NW winds before a S'ly change.

This week and next week (Jan29 - Feb9)

Weak high pressure in the Tasman (1015hPa) is directing a shallow onshore flow across the Eastern Seaboard with troughs associated with the summer monsoon across the north of the country and into the Coral Sea as well as off the South-east of the continent, and some frontal activity continuing to sweep below the continent into the lower Tasman Sea. We’ll see developments from both of those areas during this the week and into the weekend- with S swells favouring Tasmania and developing E swells favouring sub-tropical areas. A few funky days to get though first.  Read on for details. 

In the short run and a S’ly change overnight leaves a mod/fresh S/SE flow tomorrow and some small short range swell to 2ft before easing during the day as winds shift NE in the a’noon. 

A cold front passing under the state Wed brings a surge of SW wind, before winds shift variable and back to NE in the a’noon. Some minor S swell from the front offers up some weak S swell to 1ft or so, extending into Thurs as the next front approaches and wind shift W/NW. 

Fri should be a different story. Strong S swell expected to build Fri and extend into Sat as a front with gales to strong gales tied to a complex parent low drifts slowly through the far Southern Tasman. Expect fresh W’ly tending W/SW-SW winds Fri with S swell building to 3-4ft.
Stronger swells build in through Sat with size to 4-5ft at S exposed breaks and winds shifting W/NW to NW during the day.

 Size drops off quickly through Sun.

Further ahead and next week sees high pressure in the Tasman and a series of weak fronts passing under Tasmania. We may see some workable NE windswell Mon before a front pushes the fetch away into Tues.

Following that we’re looking at small, weak swells through mid next week with a possible small S swell Thurs.

Check back Wed for the latest.