Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 14th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Flukey long period S swell shows later Wed, peaks Thurs (may be lost as “noise” amongst much stronger swells)
• Low point Thurs but still fun waves with mod/fresh S’ly winds, lighter SW inshore early
• Pumping L-XL E/SE swell now likely for Good Friday, easing a notch Sat with light winds both days
• Easing swells Sun
• Uncertain outlook next week but S-SE swell likely Tues/Wed next week- check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

Windy S-SE swells have been on offer through yesterday and now through today with size fluctuating in the 3-4ft range across open stretches, which have been severely wind affected by mod/fresh S’ly winds. Smaller, cleaner options have been on the table are more protected spots. 

Smaller but cleaner into more sheltered locations

This week (Apr 16-18)

A complex scenario which is atmospheric lead-up work for a major swell generating pattern is now underway. A tropical depression between Vanuatu and New Caledonia has formed a tropical cyclone (TC Tam) and is racing south-eastwards at 23kts, where it is expected to merge with another tropical low SW of New Caledonia. After a binary interaction between the two systems, the merged low transitions into a storm force sub-tropical low which tracks SW into the Northern Tasman. This storm force low has a broad fetch aimed directly at the East Coast, generating a large E’ly quadrant swell for Good Friday and the Easter weekend with uncommonly large swell periods for swells from that direction. Easing to slack pressure gradients across the East Coast during the swells arrival and peak look to supply premium surface conditions. 

In the short run we should see another day of fresh S’lies, locally enhanced by a small troughy feature moving northwards along the temperate/sub-tropical coast of NSW. Fresh to strong S’lies should be briefly SW inshore early so normal advice applies: get in early for cleanest conditions before the synoptic wind really kicks in. Surf-wise it’ll be lemon next to the pie stuff but there will be more of the short range S/SE-SE swell we’ve had recently with size hanging in that 3-4ft range, occ. bigger set. Smaller into more sheltered locations. 

We’ll still see some S’ly quarter wind for Good Friday but with pressure gradients easing it’ll be W through W/SW for the morning, tracking SW through S and easing back to light paces through the day. A very large E-E/SE swell in the 12-14 second period band- uncommon although we just saw one from the last monster Tasman low- will be in the water and still building Fri morning. With the low in Tasman Sea proximity there’ll be a range of swell trains in the water, in the 6-10ft range with some larger rogue sets likely in the mix, up in the 10-12ft range. Very large but not quite of the amplitude we saw in the previous swell where sets in excess of 15ft were observed. Either way, it’s going to be very large, with lots of water moving and with the E’ly direction, widespread across most breaks. Experienced surfers only. 

This weekend (Apr 19-20)

Sat will be down from the peak on Good Friday as the now broad Tasman low will be dissipating in strength through Good Friday. Winds look great for a wide range of locations with light offshore land breezes extending well into the late-morning or even lunch-time session under very weak pressure gradients as high pressure drifts over NSW. Still plenty of size for the morning with 6 occ. 8ft sets, but they will tail off through the morning and into the a’noon, although we’re still likely to see a few 6ft sets through the a’noon as weak seabreezes kick in. 

Even more user friendly for Sun morning as swells tail off and tend more SE. Still holding in the 3-5ft range early dropping back to 3ft with the occ. 4ft set in the a’noon. With a front and cut-off low approaching from the west we’ll see early NW winds tend N-NE and freshen through the a’noon, reaching mod/fresh paces by mid-late a’noon.

Next week (Apr 21 onwards)

Monday is still looking pretty tricky to call as the cut-off low pushes off the coast of southern/Central NSW. Depending on the positioning we could see offshore winds and some small fun leftovers or onshore winds and building S through SE swells. We’ll likely art least see a window of light winds and small leftovers for the early.

Surf potential into next week will be determined by this small low moving offshore from the coast. 

It’s likely we’ll see a modest pressure squeeze between the low and a following high, with some workable short range S/SE-SE swell developing Tues/Wed. 

Winds don’t look great, being from the same direction as the swell but speeds remain moderate or less so we should see workable windows for the early under light land breezes. 

We may also see another low working it’s way through the South Pacific slot, although at much more distant longitudes than the current system (see below). GFS has a more bullish outlook suggesting some nice E’ly swell late next week in the 3-4ft range while EC is barely interested, with a weak low only showing signs of life once it’s moved behind the North Island. 

We’ll flag it for and see how it looks Fri.

In the mean-time much bigger fish to fry in the short-term.

Seeya on Good Friday!