Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 24th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Workable NE windswell Wed with winds tending offshore in the a’noon
• Nothing much for the end of the week and into the weekend
• Small/tiny surf continues into next week

Recap

Small NE and E/NE swells to 1-2ft yesterday under N’ly winds. Today has seen freshening N/NE winds (expected to tend W before S/SW) with plenty of chunky NE windswell on tap to 3-4ft.

This week and next week (Jan24 - Feb2)

After an extended period of eyes on the tropics there’s not too much to get excited about as the current E swell event winds down. We’re still waiting for TC Kirrily to form (already called by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre) and when it does it’s expected to take a straight SW-W/SW track into the NQ coast, crossing around Townsville tomorrow evening. No swell of any significance is expected from this system south of the QLD border- with only marginal N/NE swells showing at a few spots in QLD (mostly north of K’gari (Fraser Is)). Absent that, with weak high pressure in the Tasman we’ve only got local wind swells to keep wave zones active this week, and into next. Let’s take a look.

In the short run and mostly offshore winds tomorrow- veering between SW in the morning and more W to NW in the a’noon. Not much swell to play with though with small leftovers from the NE and the last of the E/NE swell supplying some inconsistent 1-2ft surf. 

Models are suggesting a small bump in NE wind swell Fri from a fetch off the NSW Coast with some inconsistent 2ft surf likely under fresh offshore winds.

Offshore winds Fri with a small NE swell possible

Offshore winds continue to sweep across the state over the weekend as fronts tied to parent low sweep across the state. Not much S swell due to the very zonal (W-E) fetch below the state so only tiny surf is expected both days. Marginal NE swell to 1-2ft on Sat with more of the same Sun and traces of S swell wrap at S exposed breaks. Keep expectations pegged very low though.

Into next week and high pressure in the Tasman to start next week with a typical summer NE flow along the f/cast region. Not much strength to it under current modelling so not much surf to look forwards too. Possibly some small NE windswell later Mon into Tues.

A trough brings a S change Tues with not much strength behind it and no swell expected.

Fronts passing under the state may bring some small S pulses from mid next week but models are offering mixed messages and there’s low confidence in specifics.

Nothing major is expected anyway- just some 2ft surf possible Thurs, easing Fri.

Probably best to keep expectations pegged very low for next week- we’ve definitely got a few small, weak days to get through which may extend into the medium term.
Let’s see how it look on Fri.