The broad, complex Tasman low which generated large S swells is now positioned on the other side of New Zealand with a lingering fetch of SSE-SE winds under the South Island. A much smaller, cut-off low NW of Tasmania is linked via a trough line to TC Ilsa off the Kimberly Coast and is expected to drift into the Tasman Sea tomorrow bringing a fresh S’ly flow to round off the week. A dynamic trough blocking pattern is then expected to unfold in the medium term.
Primary tabs
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/04/12/lots-leftover-s-swells-week-very-dynamic
freeride76
Wednesday, 12 April 2023
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/04/10/stacks-south-swell-then-swing-the-east
thermalben
Monday, 10 April 2023
A deep Tasman low positioned midway between the Apple Isle and New Zealand is responsible for the current south swell. And it's not over yet.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/04/07/seasonal-change-easter-s-swell-episode
freeride76
Friday, 7 April 2023
A mid-latitude low slips East of Tasmania overnight and deepens rapidly as it merges with an incoming frontal system. The front brings a strong W’ly flow through Sat which will herald the start of a major S swell episode.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/04/05/fun-ely-swell-replaced-much-stronger
freeride76
Wednesday, 5 April 2023
The big ticket item presently is the complex trough of low pressure off the Mid North Coast. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a proximate fetch of strong winds with embedded low end E’ly quarter gales aimed directly at the Mid North Coast.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/04/03/much-more-active-outlook-leading-and
freeride76
Monday, 3 April 2023
A small closed low forming in the trough off the Mid North Coast then slowly retracts eastwards as we head into the Easter weekend. Winds are going to be a bit tricky but we’ll have plenty of E/NE-E swell to play with this week as this E’ly fetch forms up.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/30/s-swells-do-the-work-weekend-quiet-times
freeride76
Friday, 31 March 2023
An upgrade is now expected for Sat as the low east of Tasmania deepened and produced a longer and stronger fetch of SSW winds extending north and south of Tasmanian latitudes.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/28/small-s-swell-pulses-continue-more
freeride76
Wednesday, 29 March 2023
A front sweeping in behind the trough is bringing a clearing W’ly flow through temperate NSW today, reaching the sub-tropics tomorrow. A belt of high pressure below the continent is now weakening and setting us up for a more benign pattern compared to Mondays notes. Small S swell pulses are on the menu from this frontal activity.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/27/tricky-troughy-pattern-week-few-flukey
freeride76
Monday, 27 March 2023
A small trough of low pressure off the Gippsland coast is replaced by another trough system later in the week. Far to the south of this hot, soupy mess a series of stronger polar lows are traversing the Far Southern Ocean, supplying some small pulses of S swell.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/23/eyes-the-south-next-week-very-uncertain
freeride76
Friday, 24 March 2023
Long period S swells will be the dominant swell trains next week as a series of deep low traverse the far southern Tasman Sea and become slow moving in New Zealand longitudes.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/22/ordinary-in-the-short-term-lots
freeride76
Wednesday, 22 March 2023
High pressure has now moved into the Tasman, weakening rapidly as it does so. In the south a small trough of low pressure off the Gippsland coast is aiding a N-NE flow through temperate NSW. In the Coral Sea a monsoon trough remains active with a persistent but unspectacular trade-wind flow maintaining a small E swell signal. The remnants of a low near the South Island are now dissipating after a final flare up yesterday.
