The tropics is in an active state with multiple low centres expected along the monsoon trough as it responds to a phase of the MJO passing into Australian longitudes. Still plenty of uncertainty there, with any meaningful swell a while away.
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/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/01/29/small-offerings-the-short-term-radar-the
freeride76
Wednesday, 29 January 2025
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/01/26/small-mixed-bag-swells-week-and-next
freeride76
Monday, 27 January 2025
Longer term is starting to look more dynamic as the tropics finally starts to fire up. Multiple low pressure systems are suggested on long range model guidance, potentially tropical cyclones.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/01/24/patchy-surf-the-foreseeable-future
thermalben
Friday, 24 January 2025
Today’s strengthening southerly winds are related to a developing Tasman Low that is poorly aligned within our swell window, and tracking unfavourably to the east.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/01/22/mix-swell-sources-flukey-winds-top
thermalben
Wednesday, 22 January 2025
As suggested in Wednesday’s notes, I’m not keen on the alignment of this Tasman Low.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/01/20/punchy-east-swell-the-next-few-days-then
thermalben
Monday, 20 January 2025
A final low pressure system associated with our recent complex synoptic pattern moved from a position north of New Zealand last week, into the Tasman Sea over the weekend.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/01/17/flag-the-weekend-early-next-week-looking
thermalben
Friday, 17 January 2025
The Tasman Sea currently has a number of low pressure centers, driving strong winds from a couple of directions across various parts of the basin.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/01/15/stacks-swell-and-wind-the-short-term
thermalben
Wednesday, 15 January 2025
A few changes to the outlook for the weekend, but in general I’m still anticipating better surf early next week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/01/13/large-swells-ahead-complex-tasman-low
thermalben
Monday, 13 January 2025
Main features on the synoptics this week are an approaching front from the west, a strong high just west of New Zealand and a deepening surface trough in the northern Tasman Sea - the latter of which will feed additional moisture into an already-evolving dynamic setup.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/01/10/small-and-surfable-short-term-dynamic
freeride76
Friday, 10 January 2025
GFS suggests the inland trough moves Northwards, with a trough spawning a small low east of Tasmania and rapidly deepens o/night into Fri with strong winds to gales developing off the south coast and Bass Strait.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/01/07/make-the-most-whats-offer-in-the-short
freeride76
Wednesday, 8 January 2025
A small trough of low pressure has stalled off Seal Rocks with a SE infeed south of the trough expected to ease over the next 24 hrs and a light/variable flow north of the trough.
