Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 17th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Swells from the E/SE building into Mon with S’ly winds
• Mod/large E’ly-ENE’ly swells from Mon/Tues and holding at sizey levels Wed/easing Thurs as trough/block pattern sets up
• Surf easing late next week with potential for rebuilding E/SE swell Fri into the  weekend depending on movement of low pressure system
• Fun levels of E swell this weekend with light winds

Recap

Sat saw the last day of meaningful S-SSE swell with some clean 3-4ft morning sets, dwindling away through the day. Sunday had small dribble through the morning to lunchtime with rapid improvement after lunch as offshore winds kicked in and swell kicked a little from the E/SE. Today has seen stronger E-E/NE swell fill in with 4-5ft sets and cleanest conditions at more sheltered spots under a morning SW breeze tending mod S-SE during the day.

Nice lines from the E/NE-E, plenty more to come

This week (Apr17-21)

The trough-block pattern set-up nicely over the weekend and we’re looking at a sustained run of swell from the Eastern quadrant. A long, angled trough with embedded low pressure centres on the Eastern flank is concentrating broad E-E/NE infeed fetches in our Eastern swell window. The pattern is expected to be slow moving with the main E-E/NE fetch slowly contracting north-eastwards this week while a small offshoot low looks to retrograde back into the Tasman Sea.

In the short run and high pressure drifts over the Central/Southern NSW Coast overnight and into tomorrow with pressure gradients rapidly easing. That should see light S’lies, SW inshore early, tending to weak SE-NE breezes through the day. Mid period E’ly swell holds size in the 4-5ft range offering plenty of options. 

Plenty of size into Wed, with a slight thickening up expected as period boosts a notch from gales today. Expect sets to 5-6ft with winds W/NW-NW early, tending pre-frontal N’ly through the day. A S’ly change associated with the front is not expected in until after dark in the region. 

Looks like a small, troughy area stalls between Sydney and the Hunter Thurs, offering a window of light SW winds early before stiff S-SE winds kick in as a new, reinforcing high rapidly builds a ridge in behind the change. E swell just slowly ramps down from the peak with 3-5ft surf slowly easing through the day. We may see some reinforcing SSE swell in the a’noon depending on how the retrograding low behaves. We’ll fine-tune that on Wed. 

SSE winds will be on the menu Fri,  possibly easing off through the day as high pressure approaches the region. E swell will be down another notch but still offering up fun sized 3ft sets. EC does suggest a stronger retrograding low mid week which offer potential for a rebuild in size Fri- check back Wed for that.

This weekend (Apr 22 - 23)

Winds look to lay down this weekend as high pressure moves over the area. Light land breezes tending to light SE-E breezes both days, at this stage.

Our E swell is showing signs of persisting over the weekend, as low pressure holds station in the Northern Tasman.

We’ll pencil in fun sized 3ft surf both days and finesse through the week. It certainly look like offering up lots of beachie options, albeit sandbank dependent. 

Next week (Apr 24 onwards)

All good things come to an end and we’ll see the trough/block pattern dissipate by next week, although the residual E swell should hold a couple of days of fun sized E swell through Mon and Tues. 

Lots of model divergence next week with EC suggesting a strong high in the Tasman with a vigorous trade-wind flow in the Coral Sea while GFS is suggesting a cold front intrusion into the lower Tasman with small S swells expected by mid-week. 

We’ll take model runs at this time frame with a grain of salt and check back in Wed to see how it’s shaping up.

In the meantime, enjoy the E swell.