The complex low pressure gyre is slowly moving under Tasmania with the majority of any swell generating winds in the swell shadow of Tasmania. Hot air being dragged down from tropical Australia is now slowly being displaced by the cooler air from the Southern Ocean and driving a synoptic W’ly flow across temperate NSW with the sub-tropics still subject to hot, Spring-like N’lies.
Primary tabs
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/08/small-s-and-ne-swells-continue-tricky
freeride76
Wednesday, 8 March 2023
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/06/split-synoptic-set-fails-deliver-much-in
freeride76
Monday, 6 March 2023
Unfortunately this strong cold outbreak now looks to stall just too far West (behind the swell shadow of Tasmania) to really deliver any strong S swell to the East Coast, before weakening as it moves into the Tasman Sea swell window proper.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/03/enough-swell-energy-fun-options-the
freeride76
Friday, 3 March 2023
A weak ridge from a high (1023hPa) tracking towards Tasmania supplies weak breezes tomorrow, likely SW inshore early before tending light SE-NE through the day. A continuing mix of S swells, mostly mid period from the frontal progression below Australia supplies some 2-3ft surf at S swell magnets, smaller elsewhere.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/01/fickle-start-autumn-few-small-swell
freeride76
Wednesday, 1 March 2023
Lots of action on the charts but not much of it will translate to meaningful surf for the Eastern Seaboard. The tropics remains active with a monsoon trough and convective activity strewn across the Top End, while the edge of the trough in the South Pacific has spawned TC Judy, with another system behind it. Both of those systems are now modelled to track quickly SE through the swell window with no major swells generated.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/02/27/mediocre-week-ahead-the-tropics
freeride76
Monday, 27 February 2023
The troughy pattern will see rapid fire wind changes across temperate NSW this week and while all eyes are on the tropics it’s looking like a continuing tease with an expected tropical depression or TC moving quite quickly SE through the swell window with limited surf potential.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/02/24/fun-mixed-bag-ahead-tropical-treats-next
freeride76
Friday, 24 February 2023
Models are now firming on a large tropical depression (possibly a TC) drifting southwards into the slot between New Caledonia and the North Island from mid next week. A broad, slow moving area of E’ly low end gales is likely on the southern flank of this system, initially favouring the sub-tropics, but radiating down to temperate NSW through next weekend.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/02/21/wind-eases-back-fri-small-mixed-bag-the
freeride76
Wednesday, 22 February 2023
Strong high pressure (1035 hPa) is now moving SE of Tasmania with an embedded trough along the advancing ridge ramping up wind speeds from the SSE-SE into the 30kts+ range. Conditions should settle as the high moves into the Tasman and weakens and the ridge relaxes through the end of the week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/02/20/complex-outlook-ahead-still-some
thermalben
Monday, 20 February 2023
The models aren't picking it up well but I'm still expecting an interesting long period south swell to glance the coast tomorrow.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/02/17/average-weekend-extra-long-period-sly
thermalben
Friday, 17 February 2023
An interesting succession of poorly aligned but explosive Southern Ocean low pressure systems below the continent will generate a spread of acute south swell along the Southern NSW coast early next week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/02/14/small-mixed-bag-ahead-the-last-gabrielle
freeride76
Wednesday, 15 February 2023
Ex TC Gabrielle (SS) is now on the eastern side of the North Island with swell generating winds also in the swell shadow of the North Island. A weak (1017HPa) high is covering most of the Tasman Sea with an active monsoon trough still supplying plenty of tropical moisture and instability across Northern Australia. Remnants of a trough near the South Island have set up a weak, off-axis fetch back into the Tasman Sea. It all spells a much quieter period of surf ahead.
