Compared to Fridays notes the front/low in the Southern Tasman is a stronger system while the tradewind pattern is weaker and more disjointed. That will see S quadrant swells dominate through most of the week through temperate NSW, with a smaller tradewind swell signal north of Coffs Harbour.
Primary tabs
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/20/stronger-the-s-weaker-the-e-plenty-wind
freeride76
Monday, 20 March 2023
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/17/plenty-wind-work-around-next-week
Plenty of wind to work around next week but windows for the keen with swells from around the compass
freeride76
Friday, 17 March 2023
Low pressure centres well to the East of Fiji (near American Samoa), west of Fiji and NW of New Caledonia will all chug away on a long tradewind belt setting up presently and enhanced by a dominant high pressure cell moving SE of Tasmania early next week. Better positioned for the sub-tropics but E/NE swell will filter down the East Coast next week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/15/get-in-quick-it-all-disappears-mixed
thermalben
Wednesday, 15 March 2023
A pair of tropical disturbances straddling the Fijian region are part of an evolving atmospheric dynamic that will concurrently occupy the Coral Sea, Northern Tasman and South Pacific basins over the coming days.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/13/punchy-east-swell-the-short-term-trade
thermalben
Monday, 13 March 2023
A low pressure system sitting near Lord Howe Island has a reasonable belt of easterly winds on its southern flank, generating new E'ly swells across the region.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/09/few-options-over-the-weekend-around-wind
freeride76
Friday, 10 March 2023
We’ve got reasonable model agreement now on the trough of low pressure in the Tasman early next week. A broad area of low pressure drifts NE to be close to Lord Howe Island on Mon, with ESE-E winds on the southern flank of the low pressure area. That system does look to persist in the Tasman at least until the middle of next week, generating fun sized SE-E swells.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/08/small-s-and-ne-swells-continue-tricky
freeride76
Wednesday, 8 March 2023
The complex low pressure gyre is slowly moving under Tasmania with the majority of any swell generating winds in the swell shadow of Tasmania. Hot air being dragged down from tropical Australia is now slowly being displaced by the cooler air from the Southern Ocean and driving a synoptic W’ly flow across temperate NSW with the sub-tropics still subject to hot, Spring-like N’lies.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/06/split-synoptic-set-fails-deliver-much-in
freeride76
Monday, 6 March 2023
Unfortunately this strong cold outbreak now looks to stall just too far West (behind the swell shadow of Tasmania) to really deliver any strong S swell to the East Coast, before weakening as it moves into the Tasman Sea swell window proper.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/03/enough-swell-energy-fun-options-the
freeride76
Friday, 3 March 2023
A weak ridge from a high (1023hPa) tracking towards Tasmania supplies weak breezes tomorrow, likely SW inshore early before tending light SE-NE through the day. A continuing mix of S swells, mostly mid period from the frontal progression below Australia supplies some 2-3ft surf at S swell magnets, smaller elsewhere.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/03/01/fickle-start-autumn-few-small-swell
freeride76
Wednesday, 1 March 2023
Lots of action on the charts but not much of it will translate to meaningful surf for the Eastern Seaboard. The tropics remains active with a monsoon trough and convective activity strewn across the Top End, while the edge of the trough in the South Pacific has spawned TC Judy, with another system behind it. Both of those systems are now modelled to track quickly SE through the swell window with no major swells generated.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2023/02/27/mediocre-week-ahead-the-tropics
freeride76
Monday, 27 February 2023
The troughy pattern will see rapid fire wind changes across temperate NSW this week and while all eyes are on the tropics it’s looking like a continuing tease with an expected tropical depression or TC moving quite quickly SE through the swell window with limited surf potential.
