Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 7th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• E/NE swell easing Good Friday with winds tending N'ly then NW-W/NW
• Traces of long period S swell Thurs
• Stronger S swell Good Friday
• W’ly winds Sat as low approaches, tending WSW-SSW Sun with small fun waves Sat, possible late kick in S swell
• Steady upwards trend in S swell Sun, becoming sizey in the a’noon on the Hunter with W/SW winds tending SW in the a’noon
• Sizey S swell Mon, likely peaking Tues with morning W’lies tending  SW-S in the a’noon
• Slow easing S swell from Wed, pulsing again Thurs and tending more S/SSE winds with winds becoming light then NW-N
• Possible low entering the Tasman mid term- nothing concrete yet, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Plenty of juice since the last f/cast with yesterday seeing mostly E quadrant swell to 4ft with a late pulse seeing solid 4-5ft sets reported. Winds were generally light all day. This morning has seen continuing sets to 4ft, (4ft+ at times) with E swell now rolling off and new S swell filling in to 3ft, bigger 4ft+ on the Hunter. Light winds are now tending N’ly with an expected shift to the NW or even W/NW this a’noon.

Still plenty of great waves around today

This weekend (Apr 8-9)

No great change to the very dynamic Easter weekend f/cast. A mid-latitude low slips East of Tasmania overnight and deepens rapidly as it merges with an incoming frontal system. The front brings a strong W’ly flow through Sat which will herald the start of a major S swell episode.

We won’t see any S swell until late in the day Sat, if at all, but there will be nice leftovers from todays pulse along with the last of the E swell, adding up to see nice 2-3ft surf through the morning with an easing trend through the day. Keep tabs late in the day for a late kick in new S swell, most of which will come from gales out of Bass Strait, which tends to favour areas from Sydney-Hunter.

Easter Sunday will see plenty of directional S swell in the water with lines sweeping up the coast and he usual spread in wave heights depending on exposure to S swells. Size in the 3ft+ range early, bigger 4ft+ on the Hunter should muscle up further in the a’noon as slightly better angled and longer period swell trains make landfall. That should add an extra foot to it at least (4ft Sydney, 6ft on the Hunter) and enhance refraction into more sheltered spots. Stiff W’ly winds will tend more SW in the a’noon.

Next week (Apr 10 onwards)

The low rotates around a complex core on the weekend, with a line of gales to severe gales actually moving back in towards the coast, slightly diminishing swell production for the East Coast. We’ll still see plenty of size Mon though with 4-6ft surf across S exposed breaks, bigger 6-8ft on the Hunter and other swell magnets. WSW winds should lay down a little through the day, tending lighter SW-S in the a’noon.

A northwards push of gales into Mon sees another strong pulse rebuild into Tues, likely representing the peak of the swell. This should see 6-8ft surf build at S exposed breaks under a W-W/SW flow which will tend to light SW-S breezes in the a’noon, possibly SSE north of the Central Coast.

We’ll see a nice long tail on this swell as the fetch occupies most of the lower Tasman and only slowly dissipates as it contracts Eastwards. 

In fact we’ll see plenty of size into Wed, with 4-5ft surf expected and light winds with the possibility of a new pulse Thurs pushing wave heights back into the 5-6ft range at S exposed breaks. Wed winds look great, light/variable offshore right through the morning but a new front Thurs should reinvigorate a SSW-S flow up the coast.

Easing swells are then expected late next week and into the weekend, although residual SE winds under the South Island should hold some small SE swell through that period. We’ll investigate that further Mon.

Longer term and we’re still looking at another complex low system approaching from the Southern Ocean. We’ll monitor over the weekend to see if this has potential in the Tasman Sea in the week beginning 17/3.

In the meantime hope you are enjoying these Autumn swells and have a great Easter weekend!