Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 3rd Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell leftovers Mon with light onshore winds
• Trough of low pressure now expected to form off Mid North Coast Mon/Tues and slowly move away from the coast
• Generating plenty of mid period E/NE-E swell from Tues, peaking Wed/Thurs, easing Good Friday with winds generally becoming favourable from Thurs
• Traces of long period S swell Thurs
• Stronger S swell Good Friday
• W’ly winds Sat as low approaches, tending WSW-SSW Sun with small fun waves Sat, easing Sun
• Possible late kick in S swell Sun, Mon likely to be sizey from the S
• Plenty of S swell next week, easing through the week

Recap

Moderate S swells and inclement weather was the order of the weekend as a slow moving trough bought downpours to the Sydney region. Sat saw surf in the 3ft range, bigger 4ft on the Hunter with a light offshore flow providing clean conditions well into the day. Sunday was trickier with similar sized surf but onshore winds through Sydney and southwards and an offshore flow north of the trough line on the Hunter which extended into the mid-morning before winds went onshore SE-ESE. Light offshore/calm conditions this morning are seeing clean but easing surf in the 3ft range at S exposed breaks, bigger 4ft on the Hunter. E’ly winds are on the radar as a high drifts into the Tasman. We’ve got a few options leading into the Easter weekend with a more dynamic outlook for the latter part of the break. Details below. 

Plenty of S swell Sat before the deluge

This week (Apr3-7)

High pressure in the Tasman right now is being enhanced by a series of troughs, with the coastal trough responsible for Sydneys weekend deluge now tracking north. Off the QLD Coast we are seeing a parallel coastal trough deepen with a long elongated trough of low-pressure expected to cojoin the NSW trough over the next 24-36hrs. This will direct an E’ly fetch across a wide swathe of the Eastern seaboard from the sub-tropics down to the Sydney region. A small closed low forming in the trough off the Mid North Coast then slowly retracts eastwards as we head into the Easter weekend. Winds are going to be a bit tricky but we’ll have plenty of E/NE-E swell to play with this week as this E’ly fetch forms up. 

In the short run and onshore winds will be in the house as the high and trough combine to direct E-E/NE winds along the coast. Pressure gradients should be light enough for a brief land breeze early but expect an early onshore flow to develop. Short period E swell will be on the build, with 2-3ft surf early slowly rising to 3-4ft during the day, likely a notch bigger from the Hunter northwards. We may see lighter, ESE-SE winds just tag the Hunter as the tail end of the trough line lingers there- so keep tabs on local winds.

Winds tend more E/SE-SE on Wed as the trough deepens into a closed low which is expected off the mid-north Coast. As the low contracts Eastwards we may see pressure gradients ease across the region, with winds laying down through the a’noon. Plenty of E swell is expected with size in the 4-5ft range, allowing for protected spots to fire under the SE winds expected. As with all these close range lows, any slight movements will have large effects on nearshore winds and swell size so keep tabs in the comments.

The low continues to move away to the E/NE Thurs, likely being positioned between Lord Howe and Norfolk Island during this period. With pressure gradients eased we should see light winds all day with a nice morning land breeze extending into mid-morning at a minimum. Mid period E swell in the 3-5ft range will slowly ease down through the day as the swell source contracts into the South Pacific. Traces of long period S swell add some energy to S facing beaches 

Good Friday sees more of that S swell, generated by a deep low passing through the Lower Tasman Wed/Thurs, along with easing E swell. A new high will have slipped into the Tasman during this period and quickly moved NE, bringing NE winds through Friday. At this point it looks like a period of morning NW winds are on offer before winds tend NE and freshen through the day. E swell in the 3ft range and S swell in the 3ft range at S facing beaches- bigger 4ft on the Hunter and other S swell magnets- is on the menu under current modelling. 

This weekend (Apr 8-9)

Winds should rapidly improve Sat under a clearing W’ly flow as a mid-latitude low approaches from the west. Groomed conditions will greet a mixed bag of leftover E swell to 2-3ft and some small leftover S swell to 2ft. We may see some small NE windswell in the mix as well depending on how Friday’s nor-easter behaves. All in all, there should be plenty of fun options across the beachies.

Remnants of the mid-latitude low move into the Tasman overnight Sat into Sun, driving SW-S winds up past Tasmania and adjacent to the South Coast. Thats likely to see winds shift from W/SW to S/SW on Easter Sunday. Small surf is likely for most of the day but depending on the timing of the low pushing through we may see a late kick in new S swell. Check back Wed for updates there. If not Sunday a’noon then Mon is a safe bet.

Next week (Apr 10 onwards)

Strong S swell is on the menu for Easter Mon. There still some model divergence to wade through but the broad-scale pattern is firming  with the mid-latitude low moving aggressively into the Tasman and pushing strong SSW-S winds up into sub-tropical latitudes. We’ll have to see how model runs shape up this week but solid surf in the 6ft range looks likely and bigger 6-8ft surf can’t be ruled out.

Winds looks to be S’ly anyhow for the opening days of next week- possibly easing Tues and tending NW-N on Wed. 

S swells are likely to slowly ease after a peak on Mon.

Troughiness and another approaching frontal system and potential mid-latitude low  will be watched later next week. Generally speaking it does look like a much more active phase of Autumn is about to begin after a mellow start to the season.

Check back in Wed for the latest.