By Sunday we’ll see a deepening angled trough in the Tasman Sea with a low expected to form in the trough NE of Tasmania off the Gippsland Coast.
Primary tabs
We’re in between swells at the moment, with weak front having passed into the Tasman and another front and compact low expected to move into the Tasman Sea later today, generating a small S swell event. A much stronger cold outbreak looks poised to spawn a major Tasman Low Sun/Mon with the seasons first serious S swell expected.
Low pressure troughs off the NSW and SEQLD coast combined with high pressure over the interior and frontal activity to the south are driving a W’ly flow across the Eastern Seaboard, perfectly timed for a quality E’ly groundswell. We’ll see a slow easing of this swell event over the coming days with all day offshores expected.
Waves won't be an issue this week. However, local winds are an issue.
A broad trough of low pressure is expected to bud a surface low near New Caledonia over the short term, generating more quality E-E/NE swell as the low drifts through the South Pacific slot and into the Tasman.
The major swell generator will be a broad fetch of SE-E/SE winds in the Coral Sea/Northern Tasman which will be enhanced later in the week as a broad tropical low tracks southwards from New Caledonia and into the wide open Eastern swell window. This will keep the sub-tropical Points pumping and filter down to temperate NSW late this week and into the weekend.
A few minor tweaks to the weekend f/cast with winds just a bit more robust than they looked on Wed.
We still have the trough block pattern in place with the South Pacific low centre contracting away to the NE while a secondary low centre retrogrades back into the Tasman Sea. An anchoring high is being shunted away with a trough and front expected tomorrow before a new dominant high moves in from the Bight.
The trough-block pattern set-up nicely over the weekend and we’re looking at a sustained run of swell from the Eastern quadrant. A long, angled trough with embedded low pressure centres on the Eastern flank is concentrating broad E-E/NE infeed fetches in our Eastern swell window.
OK, we’re getting more clarity on the dynamic situation expected to unfold next week. The current small low off the North Coast quickly gets whisked away towards New Zealand and becomes enjoined in a long, NW-SE blocking trough pattern, which is expected to have more low pressure centres embedded in it next week.