Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 31st March)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Mid period S swell fills in Fri with offshore morning winds
• Flukey SSE groundswell Fri 
• Sat looking pretty good with morning offshores and fun S swell
• Morning peak in S swell Sun with SW-S winds tending SE-ESE through the day
• Small S swell leftovers Mon with light onshore winds
• Small, benign conditions now set in most of next week
• Tricky outlook for later next week, as mid-latitude low approaches, check back Mon for updates

Recap

S swell kicked a notch yesterday to provide 3ft surf at S facing beaches, 4ft on the Hunter. Winds were offshore W’ly most of the day, tending more S’ly in part of the region during the a’noon and staying offshore in others (mostly the Hunter). Today has seen more offshore conditions with S swell in the 3ft range and some longer period SSE swell pushing up into the 4ft+ range also in the mix. 

Strong lines hitting the Hunter

This weekend (Apr 1-2)

An upgrade is now expected for Sat as the low east of Tasmania deepened and produced a longer and stronger fetch of SSW winds extending north and south of Tasmanian latitudes. Early winds look good too, with offshore W’lies expected to persist well into the late morning, before tending mod/fresh SSW-S as a minor front sweeps up past Cape Howe. Size in the 4ft range at S facing beaches is expected, a notch bigger on the Hunter with smaller waves at more protected spots. 

High pressure quickly moves into the Tasman Sunday and with a small, weak trough offshore from temperate NSW we should see a light onshore flow quickly develop. Get in early for the best chance of a morning SW flow before winds clock around SE-E through the day, although they will moderate in the a’noon. Early 3-4ft surf at S facing beaches will ease through the day but there will still be surfable options if you aren’t too fussy about wave quality. 

Next week (Apr 3 onwards)

Quiet times ahead next week. The high in the Tasman and a blocking band of high pressure well to the south of the continent effectively annuls the southern swell window. With that shut down we’ll be looking to the East. 

We’ll see some easing leftover S swell Mon in the 2-3ft range early dropping back through the day under a light onshore flow.

From Tues we’ll be relying on small amount of E/NE-E swell filtering down from winds off the top of the high- a broad windfield of moderate-fresh E’ly breezes. A trough or E’ly dip may tighten gradients south of New Caledonia or closer to the QLD coast next week but this mostly favour sub-tropical regions and will be offset by that system moving away to the East.

So, we’re looking at small E’ly swells with subtle ups and downs establishing Tues next week, with surf stabilising in the 2ft range under land and seabreezes. 

A troughy area is expected to form off the coast mid week and be affected by a large, mid-latitude cut-off low approaching from the Bight. As the low approaches we’ll expect a NW flow to develop, possibly tending more W’ly as we get closer to the Easter weekend.

Small E/NE-NE swells look to persist through that period.

Further ahead and we’ll need to see whether that mid-latitude low can reform as it enters the Tasman. That offers up potential for swell from the S to SE but models don’t show any development in the Tasman until later in the Easter break. We’ll keep tabs on it over the weekend and report back on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!