Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 5th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Trough of low pressure now expected to form off Mid North Coast Mon/Tues and slowly move away from the coast
• Generating plenty of mid period E/NE-E swell from Tues, peaking Wed/Thurs, easing Good Friday with winds generally becoming favourable from Thurs
• Traces of long period S swell Thurs
• Stronger S swell Good Friday
• W’ly winds Sat as low approaches, tending WSW-SSW Sun with small fun waves Sat, possible late kick in S swell
• Steady upwards trend in S swell Sun, becoming sizey in the a’noon with W/SW winds tending SW in the a’noon
• Sizey S swell Mon, likely peaking Tues with SW-S winds 
• Slow easing S swell from Wed, tending more SSE winds with winds becoming light then NW-N
• Possible low entering the Tasman mid term- nothing concrete yet, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Swells built from the E/NE yesterday as a trough of low pressure deepened off the Mid North Coast. Size built from 2-3ft to 3ft during the day with mostly benign winds in the morning which tended SE-E in the a’noon. This morning has seen surf muscle up a notch with 4ft sets and a morning offshore flow before winds tend SE-E, with a moderating trend expected in the a’noon as the low starts to move away from the coast. 

Tide getting too high but nice angled swell geting into protected Bays today

This week (Apr5-7)

The big ticket item presently is the complex trough of low pressure off the Mid North Coast. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a proximate fetch of strong winds with embedded low end E’ly quarter gales aimed directly at the Mid North Coast. Radial spread from this source is providing E/NE swell to temperate NSW and E/SE swell to subtropical areas with the Mid North Coast getting the direct hit and most size. Over the next 24-36hrs the low retreats eastwards and winds rotate around more SE to be aimed more directly at the sub-tropics. 

In the short term we’ll see easing pressure gradients across the region as a weak high moves into the Tasman and the low moves away. That should see morning SW breezes before a variable flow which tends to NE breezes in the a’noon. Mid period E swell should top out in the 4ft+  range with a few bigger sets on offer. Long period S swell will be in the mix through the a’noon with 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches. Plenty of fun waves on offer.

East swell will be on the decline through Good Friday with sets to 3ft in the morning on a downward trend through the day. That will be offset by directional S swell to 3ft at S facing beaches- 4ft sets on the Hunter- which should offer up clean options under a morning NW flow before winds tend N/NE and freshen through the day. Keep tabs on winds through the a’noon as a mid-latitude low approaches, we may see a wind shift to the NW or even W/NW later in the a’noon. More likely on the South Coast. 

This weekend (Apr 8-9)

Clearing W’ly winds are still on track for Easter Sat as a trough and the remnants of the mid-latitude low start to push into the Tasman, driving a W’ly flow across the state. Sat looks like a low point as far as surf size goes but a small mix of swells from the E and S should provide some 2-3ft surf with an easing trend. We may see a late kick in new S swell from gales out of Bass Strait, but Sun looks a safer bet. We’ll finesse that on Fri.

Easter Sunday should see a steady upwards trend in S swell, as a strong S swell cycle kicks off, enough to blow out the cobwebs from our quiet start to Autumn. There’ll be several S swell trains being generated from gales out of Bass Strait and a deeper fetch extending SE of Tasmania north and south. An initial S swell pulse Sun morning should see surf in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches. Much stronger surf then builds into the a’noon into the 4-6ft range at S facing beaches. This swell will be pulsey reflecting the various fetches acting through the relevant region so expect some soft patches and distinct pulses. Winds from the W-W/SW early should clock around more SW through the day, possibly SSW later in the a’noon. 

Next week (Apr 10 onwards)

Gales to strong gales are expected to push northwards adjacent to Tasmania this weekend (see below), generating large S swells for temperate NSW with subtropical areas hindered by the swell shadow of the Hunter curve. This will be a significant S swell, in the 6ft range for most S facing beaches, 6-8ft for more directly S facing stretches like the Hunter.

The fetch looks to broaden and weaken across the lower Tasman Mon, but Tues is still likely to see the peak of the swell hold in the 6ft+ range, 6-8ft at S swell magnets. Winds will be SW-SSW and tending S’ly through the day, possibly easing off later in the a’noon but you’ll need to seek some wind protection at any rate.

We’re likely to see quite a slow roll-off in size from Wed as the low centre moves NE and slowly dissipates up near the North Island, with the windfield covering most of the Tasman Sea. 

Expect plenty of juice Wed in the 5-6ft range easing through the day with S’ly quarter winds.

By Thurs we may see winds start to back down and tend offshore, even NW as high pressure moves across tthe Tasman and another frontal system and potential mid-latitude low approaches from the Bight. Swells should tend more SSE as the fetch moves across the lower Tasman.

We should be in mop-up mode Fri with swells continuing to ease into next weekend under current modelling.

Longer term and we’ll be watching to see if the approaching frontal system/low develops in the Tasman Sea early week beginning 17/3.

That’s a long way out and we’ve got plenty to occupy us in the short term so check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s all shaping up.