Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 14th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun weekend mix of easing S/SE swells and small E/SE swell, biggest Sat
• SE-ESE swell pulse Sun PM, with winds tending offshore
• Swells from the E/SE building into Mon with S’ly winds
• Mod/large E’ly swells Tues and holding at sizey levels Wed/ easing Thurs as trough/block pattern sets up
• Surf easing late next week with potential for rebuilding E/SE swell next weekend depending on movement of low pressure system
• Dynamic pattern persists so check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Not a great deal to get excited about since Wed with a stiff S’ly kicking in yesterday on an easing S/SSE swell.The Hunter had a longer period of offshore W/NW winds with 4ft of swell but for the rest of the region it was sheltered corners only with such smaller surf. Today has continued the theme with similar sized surf and S’ly quarter winds (SW on the Northern Beaches) confining clean-ish conditions to sheltered Bays, which are in the 2-3ft range. 

Not great but enough swell getting into sheltered bays for surfable options

This weekend (Apr 15 - 16)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Sat morning still looking nice with an offshore flow developing o/night Fri and extending well into the morning before freshening pre-frontal N’lies kick in. Residual SSE swell from a lingering fetch caused by this week’s Tasman Low becoming slow moving in New Zealand longitudes supplies 3-4ft surf early, with a slow easing trend in place through the a’noon. S facing beaches will be the only clean options as the N’ly kicks in.

Sunday sees easing swells from that source through the morning- although with an improved wind outlook through the a’noon and a nice kick from the SE-E/SE as winds freshen out of Cook Strait as a prelude to a stronger fetch developing in the Eastern Tasman. Expect slow 2-3ft surf early favouring S facing beaches with a NW-N flow. We’ll see some small NE windswell in the mix as well with proximate N’lies to the NSW Central Coast supplying 2ft+ sidewinders. Just around lunch-time we should see a wind shift to the W, clocking around W/SW through the a’noon as a front and small low push into the Tasman. An a’noon pulse of swell should rebuild surf back into the 2-3ft range well timed for the offshore change.

Next week (Apr 17 onwards)

OK, we’re getting more clarity on the dynamic situation expected to unfold next week. The current small low off the North Coast quickly gets whisked away towards New Zealand and becomes enjoined in a long, NW-SE blocking trough pattern, which is expected to have more low pressure centres embedded in it next week. 

Initially the low enhances a broad E-E/NE wind infeed over the weekend, contracting NE into a low pressure centre near the North Island early next week.

The passage of the front later Sun leaves a S’ly flow for Mon tending SSE as a high pressure ridge builds in behind the front. E/SE swell from the Cook Strait fetch and developing E’ly fetch off the West Coast of the North Island sees surf build into the 3-5ft range during the day after a smaller start.

Stronger E/SE-E swell then fills in Tues into the 4-6ft range under a light onshore flow as high pressure moves off the Central NSW Coast. There doesn’t look to be much in the way of pressure gradients so conditions are likely to be workable under the mid-period E swell, if not perfectly groomed.

Winds look better for Wed under a weak, troughy environment with a front approaching likely seeing W-NW winds, possibly with a late S’ly change. Strong, mid-period E swell holds in the 4-6ft range, with a slight, slow easing trend likely by close of play.

Further into next week and swells are likely to ease slowly through the end of next week as the trough/block pattern and embedded lows retreat eastwards.

The potential cyclone we mentioned on Wed now looks to manifest as a surface low in the Coral Sea which retrogrades South-westwards back towards the SEQLD Coast and possibly further South, enhancing a fetch of SE winds through the Northern Tasman next weekend.

Under current modelling that would see a windy rebuild in wave heights from the E/SE, initially favouring the sub-tropics and extending into temperate regions as the fetch moves S.

We’ll see how that shapes up on Mon, but we’ll have plenty to talk about with the upcoming pattern.

Check back then and have a great weekend!