With good model agreement now there’s high confidence we’ll see a major winter swell event next week as a slow moving low takes up occupancy in the Central Tasman leading to a highly energised stormy sea state over a majority of the Tasman Sea.
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/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/07/24/major-upgrade-next-week-strong-low
freeride76
Wednesday, 24 July 2024
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/07/22/not-much-all-week-uncertain-outlook-next
freeride76
Monday, 22 July 2024
Following that we’ve got a spring like week ahead with only some minor NE windswell to offer up some rideable waves.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/07/18/spike-in-s-swell-sun-then-flat-spell
freeride76
Friday, 19 July 2024
Much stronger S swell signal for Sunday. A trough of low pressure and front rapidly push into the Tasman. Gales will be short-lived but sufficient to whip up a spike in S swell.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/07/16/s-swell-spikes-ahead-tinyflat-spell-next
freeride76
Wednesday, 17 July 2024
This is driving stiff W’ly tending SW’ly winds all the way up to the tropics - even New Caledonia is seeing this stiff SW flow! The current northwards moving low and proximate fetch will generate a quick spike in S swell before it quickly moves away with following fronts now looking more zonal and not as favourable for swell production.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/07/14/slowly-easing-e-swells-multiple-s-swell
freeride76
Monday, 15 July 2024
We have a deep low (985hPa) adjacent to Tasmania and another attached low centre further E in the Tasman with the long E/NE infeed into this complex low gyre focussed near the west coast of the North Island and slowly sliding out of the swell window.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/07/12/strong-mix-ely-and-sly-swells-ahead
freeride76
Friday, 12 July 2024
The circulation in the trough line has increased wind speeds in the fetch as the air mass moves from high to low pressure. As a result we’ll see an increase in wave heights and period through tomorrow.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/07/10/very-active-period-ahead-strong-swells
freeride76
Wednesday, 10 July 2024
A trough is currently clearing the coast, expected to anchor a broad E’ly fetch generated by a monster high straddling New Zealand. This anchored trough fetch, or trough block pattern is favourable for swell production for almost the entire Eastern Seaboard and will come with mostly offshore winds until the weekend brings a more S’ly biased flow to temperate NSW.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/07/08/days-fun-ene-swell-ahead-week-offshore
freeride76
Monday, 8 July 2024
An inland trough eventually clears the coast later Tues or Wed and the broad E’ly infeed into the trough transforms a typical but out of season tradewind fetch into a more broadscale “trough block” feature which will send swell to most of the Eastern Seaboard.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/07/04/se-winds-finally-easing-over-the-weekend
freeride76
Friday, 5 July 2024
The “trough block” pattern mentioned on Wed looks to set-up as the clearing trough Mon sets up a long N-S oriented line in the Tasman to Coral Seas and focusses a long E’ly fetch through this vast area. Windspeeds are the limiting factor but we should see a steady increase in E-E/NE swell from Thurs into next weekend.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2024/07/03/winds-ease-over-the-weekend-mix-s-and-se
freeride76
Wednesday, 3 July 2024
A low in the Tasman is moving north with a slingshot fetch of S-SE winds expected to rebuild wave heights from the S-SE later today and into tomorrow while a trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea is sending more E’ly angled swell into the sub-tropical Points. The combination of low and high pressure is maintain a firm ridge along the eastern seaboard with plenty of S-SE wind.
